( My Recommendation đ )
STI Market forecast for the month of June :
Stay on the side
STI had touched the lowest of 3160 points last week, and reverse up on Monday to catch the market rally of debt-limit deal clears US Congress last Friday, ending threat of US default. However, STI failed to break up from resistance and now entering into a descending triangle pattern, meaning it is likely to swing down by end of this week (Descending triangles are a bearish formation that anticipates a downside breakout).
Since I had been calling to reduce portfolio size since early May and from now onwards, investors can start to bargain hunting but not buy into positions as market may consolidate more with many unresolved differences among countries. In fact, what the fund managers concerned most is the US economic situation as FOMC will hold June meeting next week. Whether to pause rate for a month or continue rate hike at a slower pace, inflation is still consider the biggest challenge to the global economies. In addition, Joe Biden debt-bill signing set to unleash tsunami of US debt sales, will the US Treasury bills issuance suck a bunch of liquidity out of the marketplace... Investors need to stay watchful on this, especially the Sec currently take actions against a few bitcoin exchanges may impact the liquidities in the market.
Look Back
Reviewing the entire May, the only sector that really won the race is AI-related and Tech sector. The fund managers believed the higher level of technologies like Artificial Intelligence is no longer a dream. Especially AI chip maker, Nvidia, is one of the top picks with buying signal. Looking at the entire month of May, putting Nikkei 225 aside, the Nasdaq surged 1000 points up. In the local market, so far we don't have the AI-related sector listed for investors to consider. But in contrary, many local traditional businesses, were in fact hammered lower like Comfort Delgro and Singpost.... in the view of fierce competition ahead. Be it the fund managers switching out from traditional businesses to AI-related sector or the disappointing earnings, the truth is AI had been using as a digital assistants in our day-to-day activities, replacing labor intensive jobs and pushing the quality of life to meet the new cutting edge of virtual reality.
If you wondered whether the tech counters are still good to buy.. yes but currently they are relatively too pricey to trade... but buy the dips. The next decade can't run away these few things: AI and Tech, EV and Defence.
Last but not last, many people asked if Japan can continue its uptrend momentum... Yes, also buy on dips.
Date: 6 June 2023
Date: 7 June 2023 (noon)
Market Update for 15-20 May 2023
Investor's Must-Know
Past Economic Events to note last week:
Singapore
Hightlights
Temasek's Ecosperity Week conference in June
Keppel DC Real Estate Investment Trust has been dropped from the Straits Times Index and will be on the reserve list. SEATRIUM will join the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) from Jun 19, replacing Keppel DC Real Estate Investment Trust (Reit), following the latest quarterly review of the STI by FTSE Russell
Economic Data (last week)
Bank Lending 796.9B to 792.5B
Manufacturing PMI 49.7 to 49.5
United States
US presidential election will be held in Nov 2024
US Earning this week : https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/earnings/
Hightlights
US debt ceiling bill passes House with broad bipartisan support [SCMP]
Joe Biden debt-bill signing set to unleash tsunami of US debt sales
US Regulators want to increase U.S. bank capital requirements by as much as 20% in an effort to strengthen the banking system after a string of failures this year
Economic Data (last week)
CB Consumer Confidence May: 103.7 to 102.3
Chicago PMI May: 48.6 to 40.4
JOLTs Job Openings Apr: 9.745M to 10.103M
Initial Jobless Claims May: 230K to 232K
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change May: 291K to 278K
Nonfarm Productivity Q1 qoq: 1.7% to -2.1%
Unit Labor Costs Q1 qoq: 3.2% to 4.2%
Manufacturing PMI May: 50.2 to 49.0
ISM Manufacturing PMI May: 47.1 to 46.9
Crude Oil Inventories -12.456M to 4.488M
Fed's Balance Sheet 8,436B to 8,386B
Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks 3.251T to 3.206T
Nonfarm Payrolls May: 294K to 339K
Private Nonfarm Payrolls May: 253K to 283K
Participation Rate 62.6% ro 62.6%
Unemployment Rate 3.4% to 3.7%
Other Countries
China, Hong Kong
# China Asks Big Banks to Cut Deposit Rates to Boost Growth (6 June)
# China's PMI weaker than expected. dragged down the performance of Asia Markets last week
# Dual Currency Counter Trading Launched Jun19 [link]
CNY's Chinese Composite PMI May: 54.4 to 52.9
CNY's Manufacturing PMI May: 49.2 to 48.8 CNY's Non-Manufacturing PMI May: 56.4 to 54.5 CNY's Caixin Manufacturing PMI May: 49.5 to 50.9
HKD's Exports Apr: -1.5% to -13.0%
HKD's Imports Apr: -0.6% to -11.9%
HKD's Trade Balance -40.6B to -36.6B
HKD's Retail Sales yoy Apr: 40.9% to 15.0%
Japan
Japan renews chip plan, confirms sales goal of US$108 bil [TheEdge]
Europe and Others
FTSE 100, DAX, CAC 40 and EURO STOXX 50
ECB's Lagarde sees no peak in core inflation despite 'moderation'
Coming Important Economic Data to take note:
âĄď¸Singapore
Monday, June 5, 2023 : Retail Sales
Wednesday, June 7, 2023 : Foreign Reserves USD
âĄď¸United States
(Next FOMC : June 13-14)
Sunday, June 4, 2023 : OPEC Meeting
Monday, June 5, 2023 : S&P Global Composite PMI
: Services PMI : Factory Orders : ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, June 6, 2023 : EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
Wednesday, June 7, 2023 : Exports
: Imports
: Trade Balance
: Crude Oil Inventories Thursday, June 8, 2023 : Initial Jobless Claims***
: Fed's Balance Sheet
: Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks
âĄď¸China, HK
Sunday, June 4, 2023 : HKD's Manufacturing PMI
: CNY's Caixin Services PMI
: CNY's Chinese Composite PMI
Monday, June 5, 2023 : CNY's Caixin Manufacturing PMI Tuesday, June 6, 2023 : CNY's Exports
: CNY's Imports : CNY's Trade Balance Wednesday, June 7, 2023 : HKD's Foreign Reserves USD
: CNY's Foreign Reserves USD
Thursday, June 8, 2023 : CNY's CPI : CNY's PPI
Market Focus that Matters
đ đHighlightsđ
# Saudi pledges big oil cuts in July as OPEC+ extends deal into 2024
# APPLE'S NEW LAUNCHED HEADSET PRICED AT US$3,499 !
# Southeast Asia's green investments dipped 7% y-o-y to US$5.2 bil in 2022
# US's SEC sues Binance and CEO Zhao for breaking securities rules
# Coinbase sued by SEC for breaking US securities rules
# Global airline profit estimate jumps to US$10 bil in 2023 # Fed signal for rate pause takes pressure off hot jobs report
# While many tech companies join the AI chase, experts warn that Artificial intelligence may lead humanity to âextinction... # Elon Musk visits China today; traveling to China amid Sino-American tensions # Cathie Wood Says Tesla Stock Could Soar 1,030% by 2027 -- Elon Musk Says It's the Best Analysis He's Seen : # While many tech companies join the AI chase, experts warn that Artificial intelligence may lead humanity to âextinction...
Singapore :
City Energy, Senoko Energy sign MOU to study hydrogen import and supply between their facilities
Morgan Stanley plans move to new Singapore office in growth boom
Goldheartâs e-commerce website breached with close to 42,000 customersâ personal information compromised
Sembcorp Gas signs $1.9 bil sales agreement to import natural gas piped from Indonesia
Sembcorp begins process to explore potential divestment of SembWaste
Citi ups Sembcorpâs TP to $5.98 as it moves to next phase of brown-to-green transformation
LREIT to acquire stake in Parkway Parade for $88.9 mil
Digital Core REIT's second-largest customer Cyxtera files for bankruptcy
Challenger Technologies' chairman improves privatisation offer to 60 cents per share
China's Milkyway Chemical makes 22.66 cents GO for LHN Logistics
MAS to launch consultation on inclusion of coal phase-out criteria in Singaporeâs taxonomy
Seatrium to be included in the STI; Keppel DC REIT heads for reserve list
CPIB launches investigation into Seatrium for alleged corruption in Brazil (update)
Sysma chairman offers to privatise company at 16.8 cents
Crypto.com receives full approval from MAS for payments licence
Dyna-Mac eyes growth and recurring income, mulls buybacks and higher payouts
IPO: Medical supplies firm Pasture Holdings aims to raise $5 million via all-placement IPO
AIMS APAC REIT seeks to raise $100 mil through private placement and preferential offering
đ đSG Earning Announcementđ
Watch out for the Second Quarter Earning reporting season in July 2023...
Yanlord reports 437.5% y-o-y surge in total contracted pre-sales of RMB6.1 bil in May
Changi Airport Group swings from losses of $838 million to FY2023 earnings of $33 million
MTQ triples earnings, seeks 'steady growth' from the traditional energy business
IHH reports higher earnings on operations recovery and one-off disposal gain
đ
đLatest Market View published in ZaoBao/Mediađ
(May 2023)
Interview at ZaoBao on 3 June, click HERE to access if you are their subscriber.
Interview at ZaoBao on 31 May, click HERE to access if you are their subscriber.
đ
đSGX & Other Newsfeedđ
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