( My Recommendation đ )
Market forecast for 1st Week of May :
Start to Stay Defensive
Entering the month of May, I remain bullish for the first 2 weeks of the month. In fact, I will do some short-term (long) trades if there's opportunity. However, I will also start reducing the mid-term long positions slowly and trim the portfolio to hold more cash on hand.
My concerns include
(1) the health of banking sector
(2) the possiblility of US recessions
(3) On-going political turmoil
MACD had shown the death cross last week. In fact, the excellent Q1 banks earnings didn't seem to excit the fund managers to take on any heavy long positions. And the profit-taking activities are dominating the market. Therefore, investors can consider to have at least 30%-35% cash holding in their portfolio as safety nets.
Market Update for 25 Apr - 01 May 2023
Investor's Must-Know
Past Economic Events to note last week:
Singapore
Hightlights
New Property Market Cooling Mesures: Higher ABSD rate for second home; 60% for foreigners [CNA] [Yahoo] [AsiaOne]
Singapore and China Establish Green Finance Taskforce to Strengthen Collaboration in Green and Transition Finance [MAS] [FinTech Global]
Singapore factory output (refer to Industrial Production) falls 4.2% in March; economists expect slump to continue through H1 [EDB] [BT]
Singapore: Inflation lost momentum in March â UOB [FXStreet]
DBS reports record quarterly earnings of $2.57 bil for 1QFY2023, 43% higher y-o-y
UOB reports record core net profit of $1.58 bil, 74% higher y-o-y in 1QFY2023
Economic Data (last week)
Core CPI , CPI : yoy: 5.50% to 5.00%, 6.3% to 5.5%
Industrial Production : yoy: -9.7% to -4.2%, mom: -12.5% to 9.3%
Unemployment Rate : q1: 2.0% to 1.8%
URA Property Index : qoq: 0.4% to 3.30%
Bank Lending : 803.8B to 796.9B
Business Expectations : q1: -25.00 to 2.00
United States
Hightlights
Yellen warns Congress Treasury may run out of cash as soon as June [TheEdge]
Biden seeks May 9 Debt Limit Meeting
Economic Data (last week)
Building Permits 1.550M to 1.430M
CB Consumer Confidence** Apr :104.0 to 101.3
New Homes Sales Mar mom : -3.9% to 9.6%, 623K to 683K
Durable Goods Orders Mar mom : -1.2% to 3.2%
Crude Oil Inventories -1.743M to -0.166M
GDP qoq q1: 2.6% to 1.1%
Initial Jobless Claims*** 246K to 230K
Pending Home Sales -5.2% to 0.8%
PCE Price Index Mar mom : 0.3% to 0.1%; yoy: 5.1% to 4.2%
Michigan Consumer Expectations Apr: 60.3 to 60.5
Other Countries
China, Hong Kong
China's Chinese Industrial Profit YTD Mar from -22.9% to -21.4%
China's Chinese Composite PMI Apr from 57.0 to 54.4
China's Manufacturing PMI Apr from 51.9 to 49.2
China's Non-Manufacturing PMI Apr from 58.2 to 56.4
Japan
The Bank of Japan left its interest rates unchanged in newly appointed Governor Kazuo Ueda's first policy meeting. The decision was in line with economist expectations for no changes to the benchmark interest rate, which has been held at minus 0.1% since the central bank took rates below zero in 2016. [CNBC]
Observation: Nikkei 225 climbed to recent record high of 29,278 points, and previously this high was once touched in Aug 2022.
Europe
FTSE 100, DAX, CAC 40 and EURO STOXX 50... the European indexes are consolidating at the high point
Observation: Same as last week
Coming Important Economic Data to take note:
âĄď¸Singapore
Wednesday, May 3, 2023 : Manufacturing PMI
Friday, May 5, 2023 : Retail Sales
âĄď¸United States
Monday, May 1, 2023 : ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 : Factory Orders
: JOLTs Job Openings**
Wednesday, April 26, 2023 : ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
: S&P Global Composite PMI
: Service PMI
: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
: Crude Oil Inventories
: Fed Interest Rate Decision*** : FOMC Statement***
Thursday, May 4, 2023 : Imports / Exports
: Initial Jobless Claims***
: Nonfarm Productivity
: Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks
Friday, May 5, 2023 : Nonfarm Payrolls**
: Private Nonfarm Payrolls
: Unemployment Rate
âĄď¸China
Wednesday, May 3, 2023 : Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Thursday, May 4, 2023 : Caixin Services PMI
Market Focus that Matters
đ đHighlightsđ
IMF highlights :
IMF says China shifting on debt restructuring after being burned
Bitcoin extends recent bout of volatility in climb back toward US$30,000.
MAS : Singaporeâs near-term outlook remains uncertain with downside risks [WallStreet]
Local :
Singapore's Vivian Balakrishnan voices 'grave concern' over South China Sea tensions
ComfortDelGro appoints new chairman, creates new position of deputy chairman
KIT raises $299.6 mil from equity fund raising with issue prices fixed at the highest end of the range
Others :
Samsung posts record chip losses as memory slump nears nadir [South China]
đ đSG Earning Announcementđ
Watch out for the First Quarter Earning reporting season in Apr-May 2023...
Mapletree Logistics Trust's 4QFY2023 DPU unchanged, FY2023 DPU up 2.5%
Mapletree Industrial Trust reports 4QFY2023 DPU of 3.33 cents, bringing full year payout to 13.57 cents
Sheng Siong reports 5.2% lower net profit of $33.4 mil for 1QFY2023
Wilmar says 1QFY2023 results were âsatisfactoryâ, core net profit declines 24.1% y-o-y to US$381.9 mil
CICT reports 11.3% higher NPI of $276.3 mil in 1QFY2023 update
FEHT reports 24.1% higher distributable income of $18.2 mil in 1QFY2023 update
CDLHT reports 35.0% higher NPI of $32.7 mil in 1QFY2023 update
FHT reports 79.9% higher DPS of 1.2649 cents for 1HFY2023 due to recovery in travel
No DPU for Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust in the 1QFY2023
MPACT to pay 4QFY2023 DPU of 2.25 cents
Elite Commercial REIT reports 26.6% drop in 1QFY2023 DPU of 0.94 pence
Digital Core REIT 1QFY2023 net income down 10% y-o-y on higher financing costs
CLINT reports 1QFY2023 net property income of $42 mil, up 5% y-o-y
đ
đMy latest Market View published in ZaoBao in the month of April - May 2023đ:
Interviewed for Market Summary dated on 1 May 2023 :
Interviewed for Standalone Report dated on 2 May 2023 :
Interviewed for AM Market Summary dated on 27 Apr 2023 :
đ
đSGX & Other Newsfeedđ
CASH PLUS Promotion:
Low-commission trading account is available... and check out for Promotion Details
(Waived for US and HK Foreign Custody fee until 31 December 2022.)
Important Disclaimer
A. Reminders: 1. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd ("PSPL") will generally provide you "execution only" services - see Guide and Cautionary Notes for Trading Accounts on www.poems.com.sg. You are therefore personally responsible to make your own decisions on the suitability of every securities transaction you do through PSPL. One exception is if you specifically apply and pay for advice from PSPL. The other is referred to in reminder 2. 2. Execution-Related Advice ("ERA") on listed Excluded Investment Products may be given to you, but only subject to strict conditions. These include (a) you accepting personal responsibility to ensure any such advice is suitable before you act on it, and (b) you ensuring that you both receive and understand the rationale for every ERA given to you. 3. Materials (including market and analyst reports) are provided to you as information on an execution only basis for you to make your own suitability decisions. Materials which are not ERA are provided strictly as you asked. These reminders apply to the contents of this e-mail as well as any and all accompanying materials sent under its cover. B. General Disclaimer: The information/materials provided (whether as attachments to this e-mail or in its body), where they are not ERA on listed Excluded Investment Products in compliance with the second reminder above, are provided for general information/circulation only and not intended and therefore should not be taken as any offer or solicitation to do any investment or trade. No assessment has been made by PSPL as to the suitability for you of any materials in or under this e-mail. As always, the decision to trade and/or invest remains solely with you. Information/materials in or under this e-mail are provided as is without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. Such information/materials provided have been procured from sources which are believed to be reliable and accurate (but whose reliability and accuracy cannot be and are not warranted); and may have been acted on by PSPL or members of the PhillipCapital group of entities before being made available to you. All investments are subject to investment risks. Ideally you should and you may wish to seek advice from an independent financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase or invest in the investment product(s) mentioned either in this e-mail or its attachment(s). If you choose not to do so, you are then choosing to make your own decision on whether any of the said investment product(s) are suitable for you. Neither PSPL nor any fellow member of the PhillipCapital group of entities shall, in any event, be liable to you for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on any information in and/or materials attached to this email. C. General Confidentiality Note: This e-mail and its attachment(s) are intended only for the use of the recipient(s) named above. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately and delete all copies of it.
Confidentiality Note
This e-mail and its attachment(s) are intended only for the use of the recipient(s) named above. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately and delete all copies of it.
ComentĂĄrios