Market Update for 21 - 27 Mar 2023
Market forecast for 5th Week of March
Update on
Global Banking Crisis
Silicon Valley Bank
First Citizens Bank to purchase assets of Silicon Valley Bank
Collapse : Deutsche Bank
Shares of Deutsche Bank dropped more than 14% last Friday (24 Mar), on recession fear. [link]
Past Economic Events to note last week:
➡️Singapore's CPI (inflation) : Singapore Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth was measured at 6.3 % YoY in Feb 2023, compared with a rate of 6.6 % in the previous month. MAS core inflation remains at 5.5% in February
➡️Singapore's Industrial Production : Singapore’s manufacturing output decreased 8.9% in
February 2023 [Monthly Manufacturing Performance February 2023]
➡️The Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate target rate by 25 basis points to a range of between 4.75% and 5.00% [link]
Market Concerns :
➡️Global IPO market revival undermined by banking, recession risks [link]
➡️Credit Suisse bondholders seek legal advice on AT1 wipe-out [link]
➡️S’pore bank bonds not spared financial sector fallout, but lenders not significantly impacted [link]
➡️MAS' Statement on Additional Tier 1 Instruments Issued by Singapore Banks [link]
Abstract from MAS Statement : AT1 bonds in Singapore are offered in the wholesale market, which is only for institutional investors , accredited investors , or transactions in denominations of at least S$200,000. No prospectus for the offering of AT1 bonds to retail investors has been registered with MAS.
Future Events to note next Week:
➡️30 Mar; US's GDP
➡️30 Mar; China's Manufacturing PMI
➡️31 Mar; US's Core PCE Price Index
Week after Next*** :
➡️2 Apr; SG's URA Property Index qoq Q1
➡️3 Apr; SG's Manufacturing PMI Mar
➡️5 Apr; SG's Retail Sales MoM Feb
➡️7 Apr; SG's Foreign Reserves USD
➡️3 Apr; US's Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI for March
➡️4 Apr; US's JOLTs Job Openings Feb
➡️5 Apr; US's ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Mar
➡️7 Apr; US's Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for March
➡️3-5 Apr; China Holiday - Ching Ming Festival
➡️5 Apr; HK Holiday - Ching Ming Festival
➡️7 Apr; Holidays for most of the stock markets include U.S., HK, Singapore, UK, Australia
Market Forecast:
After the banking crisis last week, FOMC decided to increase another 25 basis points on the Fed rate. And markets generally believe the interest rate ceiling will soon be reaching the upper limit, and that's indicating the entire rate hike may soon come to an end. However, there are still many uncertainties linger in the air and fund managers are trying to relocate assets to other safer havens after the western banks collapsed last week. In fact, Asia markets could be benefitted from this chaos as funds may now take an U-turn and channel the money temporarily out of the Europe and the U.S. market and stay defensive.
As forecasted last week, STI had filled the gap between 3184 points and 3210 points. And this week, the market seemed ignoring the lower-than-expected economic data and opened high on Monday (28 Mar), sitting firm above 250 days MA (see arrow below). Investors need to take note of one indicator of MACD crossover (see circle below) had already appeared last week. Technically, the market should be able to continue in rebounding. Nonetheless, the current market sentiment are bad and many investors are in fear, wondering any other collapsing banks awaiting to be rescued. Therefore, any rebound in STI may currently still cap at 3280, and pull back can happen on Wednesday but STI remains strong above 250 days MA, as stepping into the month of April.
Lastly, investors should stay cautious but for the short-term players can consider to start buy into the property counters in April for speculation as it had been beaten badly for the past 2 months.
My latest Market View published in ZaoBao in the month of March 2023:
Interviewed for Market Summary dated on 24 Mar 23 :
🌀SG Earning Announcement🌀
Watch out for the First Quarter Earning reporting season in Apr-May 2023...
FUTURE
🌀 Highlights of Economic Calendar: 27 - 31 Mar 23 🌀
| Mon 27 Mar 23 | Tue 28 Mar 23 | Wed 29 Mar 23 | Thu 30 Mar 23 | Fri 31 Mar 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Singapore | | | | Bank Lending | |
United States | | CB Consumer Confidence | Pending Home Sales | GDP, Initial Jobless Claims | Personal Spending |
China | | | | Manufacturing PMI | |
Hong Kong | Exports/ Imports | | | Retail Sales |
See below for more important data to be announced:
Mon, 27 Mar 23 HKD : Exports mom Feb : -36.7% to -8.8%
HKD : Imports mom Feb : -30.2% to -4.1%
HKD : Trade Balance : -25.4B to -45.4B
AUD : Retail Sales mom Feb : 1.9% to ?
Tues, 28 Mar 23 USD : Good Trade Balance Feb : -91.09B to ?
USD : CB Consumer Confidence Mar : 102.9 to ?
USD : API Weekly Crude Oil Stock : 3.262M to ?
Wed, 29 Mar 23 USD : Pending Home Sales mom Feb : 8.1% to ?
GBP : Crude Oil Inventories : 1.117M to ?
Thu, 30 Mar 23 SGD : Bank Lending : 807.1B to ?
USD : GDP QoQ Q4 : 3.2% to ?
USD : GDP Price Index QoQ Q4 : 3.9% to ?
USD : Initial Jobless Claims : 191K to ?
USD : Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks : 3.370T to ?
CNY : Chinese Composite PMI Mar : 56.4 to ?
CNY : Manufacturing PMI Mar : 52.6 to ?
CNY : Non-Manufacturing PMI Mar : 56.3 to ?
Fri, 31 Mar 23 GBP : GDP qoq Q4 : -0.2% to ?
HKD : Retail Sales yoy Feb : 7.0% to ?
USD : Core PCE Price Index mom Feb : 0.6% to ?
USD : Personal Spending mom Feb : 1.8% to ?
USD : Michigan Consumer Sentiment Mar : 67.0 to ?
PAST
🌀 Things to note of past Economic Calendar: 20 - 25 Mar 23 🌀
Sun , 19 Mar 23 CNY : PBoC Loan Prime Rate : 3.65% to 3.65%
Mon, 20 Mar 23 AUD : RBA Meeting Minutes
Tues, 21 Mar 23 USD : Existing Home Sales mom Feb : -0.7% to 14.5%
USD : API Weekly Crude Oil Stock : 1.155M to 3.262M
Wed, 22 Mar 23 USD : FED Interest Rate Decision : 4.75% to 5%
USD : Crude Oil Inventories : 1.550M to 1.117M
GBP : CPI yoy Feb : 10.1% to 10.4%
HKD : Interest Rate Decision : 5.00% to 5.25%
Thu, 23 Mar 23 SGD : Core CPI yoy Feb : 5.50% to 5.50%
SGD : CPI yoy Feb : 6.6% to 6.3%
HKD : CPI yoy Feb : 2.4% to 1.70%
USD : Initial Jobless Claims : 192K to 191K
USD : New Home Sales Feb : 633K to 640K
USD : Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks : 3.444T to 3.370T
JPY : National CPI yoy Feb : 4.3% to 3.3%
Fri, 24 Mar 23 SGD : Industrial Production yoy Feb : -3.1% to -8.9%
SGD : Industrial Production mom Feb : -0.4% to -11.7%
USD : Core Durable Goods Orders mom Feb : 0.4% to 0.0%
USD : Manufacturing PMI Mar : 47.3 to 49.3
USD : S&P Global Composite PMI : 50.1 to 53.3
USD : Service PMI Mar : 50.6 to 53.8
📌
Other Focus (Highlights of Results / Corporate Actions):
Local news:
ST Engineering subsidiary wins MINDEF contract for six combat vessels
Sembcorp terminates 2021 agreement to develop Indonesia solar and energy storage project
Brazilian federal government starts investigations on Sembcorp Marine for alleged irregularities practiced
ESR plans to divest non-core assets to focus on delivering value
Sembcorp weighs sale of waste management unit, could seek as much as US$700 mil: sources
CDL to acquire Sofitel Brisbane Central for $159.2 mil
Vividthree to acquire 30% stake in PR firm Elliott & Co for $0.7 mil with further call option
Terraform Labs co-founder arrested and charged with fraud
Earning Results:
Shangri-La Asia announced a smaller loss in FY2022
Other News
TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew testifies before Congress [link]
Saudi Aramco takes $4.7 bil stake in China oil refinery
Saudi National Bank chair resigns after Credit Suisse remark
📌
SGX & Other Newsfeed
💡 SGX <Analyst Research>
CASH PLUS Promotion:
Low-commission trading account is available... and check out for Promotion Details
(Waived for US and HK Foreign Custody fee until 31 December 2022.)
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