Market Update for 28 Jan - 6 Feb 2023
Market forecast from 7 - 13 Feb 2023
Past Events to note last Week:
➡️Federal Reserve hikes interest rates 0.25 percentage point [link]
➡️USD rebounds as US nonfarm payroll 517K vs 185K estimate [link]
➡️China removes testing requirements, quota for Hong Kong travel
➡️Singapore's retail sales up by 7.4% y-o-y to $4.7 bil in December 2022 [link]
➡️MAS and Brunei Darussalam Central Bank sign MOU to deepen cooperation in financial supervision [link]
➡️Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia Exchanges to Cooperate on Cross Listings
Future Events to note next Week:
➡️SGD Non-Oil Exports Jan @ 16 Feb 23, Thu
➡️Final Year (FY22) Earning announcement for 3 local banks :
DBS : 13th (AM) Feb 2023 (one day before US CPI announcement)
UOB : 23rd (AM) Feb 2023
OCBC : 24th (AM) Feb 2023
➡️US CPI @ 14 Feb 23, Tue
➡️US Retail Sales, Industrial Production MoM @ 15 Feb 23, Wed
➡️US Philadelphia Fed Mnftg, PPI @ 16 Feb 23, Thu
Market Forecast:
As what the market had expected, Fed raised 0.25% interest rate on the first FOMC meeting in 2023 last week. Though no surprises, but the positive economic data does lift the indexes higher, except Nonfarm Payrolls..., as mentioned last week "many key data will be announced right after FOMC on the following 2 days, and data like Initial Jobless Claim, Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls... are in fact matter more as they will show sign of whether the recession had really been avoided." Therefore, the next market focus will be the Fed Chair Powell's speech on Tuesday 7 Feb as well as US CPI on 14 Feb. Investors can watch out for it.
Entering the 2nd week of February, operations from all sectors should be resumed in full strength, and I will expect the market may either stay flat or pull back till the mid of the week. For short-term trading, I'm looking at Thursday if any chance to buy low.
I had noted the sudden surge in Nasdaq last week, had aroused many interests in the market to buy into tech sectors. Seen long enough in the stock market to say this Once miss the chance, mean you had miss the chance... and please wait." and for portfolio building, I personally prefer to consider to buy if tech counters hit low again in Q2. But for short term trading, my preferred sector for Feb - Mar will go back to agricultural related sector.
Market view: [link] - Yellen says US can avoid recession with unemployment at 53-year low
My latest Market View published in ZaoBao in the month of February 2023:
Market Summary dated on 03 Feb 23:
🌀SG Earning Announcement🌀
Watch out for the Final Year Earning reporting season in Feb 2023...
FUTURE
🌀 Highlights of Economic Calendar: 6 - 11 Feb 23 🌀
Mon, 6 Feb 23 AUD : RBA Interest Rate Decision Feb : 3.1% to ?
USD : CB Employment Trends Index Jan : 116.31 to ?
Tues, 7 Feb 23 SGD : Foreign Reserves USD : 289.5B to ? HKD : Foreign Reserves USD : 424.0B to ?
CNY : FX Reserves USD : 3.128T to ?
USD : Exports : 251.9B to ?
USD : Imports : 313.4B to ?
USD : Trade Balance Dec : -61.5B to ?
USD : API Weekly Crude Oil Stock : 6.330M to ?
Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Wed, 8 Feb 23 USD : Crude Oil Inventories : 4.140M to ?
Thu, 9 Feb 23 USD : Initial Jobless Claims : 183K to ?
CNY : CPI Jan : 1.8% to ?
CNY : PPI Jan : -0.7% to ?
Fri, 10 Feb 23 GBP : GDP qoq : -0.3% to ?
USD : Michigan Consumer Sentiment : 64.9 to ?
USD : Federal Budget Balance Jan -85.0B to ?
PAST
🌀 Things to note of past Economic Calendar: 30 Jan - 4 Feb 23 🌀
Mon, 30 Jan 23 SGD : Bank Lending : 816.5B to 813.5B
SGD : Unemployment Rate Q4 : 2.0% to 2.0%
CNY : Chinese Composite PMI, Jan : 42.6 to 52.9 CNY : Manufacturing PMI, Jan : 47.0 to 50.1
Tues, 31 Jan 23 SGD : Business Expectations Q4 : -20.00 to -25.00
USD : Employment Cost Index Q4 : 1.2% to 1.0%
USD : CB Consumer Confidence Jan : 109.0 to 107.1
USD : API Weekly Crude Oil Stock : 3.378M to 6.330M
CNY : Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Jan : 49.2 to 49.2
Wed, 1 Feb 23 HKD : GDP yoy : -4.5% to -4.2%
GBP : Manufacturing PMI, Jan : -9.20% to -3.30%
USD : OPEC Meeting (link)
USD : ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Jan : 253K to 106K
USD : ISM Manufacturing PMI, Jan : 48.4 to 47.4
USD : JOLTs Job Opening, Dec : 10.440M% to 11.012M
USD : Crude Oil Inventories : 0.533M to 4.140M
USD : FOMC Statement [link]
USD : Fed Interest Rate Decision : 4.50% to 4.75%
USD : FOMC Press Conference, Video [link]
Thu, 2 Feb 23 SGD : Manufacturing PMI (Jan) : 49.7 to 49.8
USD : Initial Jobless Claims : 186K to 183K
USD : Nonfarm Productivity Q4 : 1.4% to 3.0%
USD : Unit Labor Costs Q4 : 2.0% to 1.1%
HKD : Manufacturing PMI, Jan : 49.6 to 51.2
CNY : Caixin Services PMI : 48.0 to 52.9
Fri, 3 Feb 23 SGD : Retail Sales, mom : -3.6% to 1.30% (yoy : 6.5% to 7.4%)
HKD : Retail Sales, yoy : -4.2% to 1.1%
GBP : Composite PMI : 49.0 to 48.5, Services PMI Jan : 49.9 to 48.7
USD : Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan : 260K to 517K
USD : Unemployment Rate, Jan : 3.5% to 3.4%
USD : S&P Global Composite PMI, Jan : 45.0 to 46.8
USD : ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Jan : 49.2 to 55.2
📌
Other Focus (Highlights of Results / Corporate Actions):
Other extracted news:
Ley Choon wins $153 mil worth of new contracts
Oxley issues exchange offer for outstanding notes Series 003 notes due 2023
OCBC unit files police report against Gudang Garam owner
Wilmar International, Walmart among those exposed to Adani crash
Adani crisis deepens as stock rout hits US$107 bil, bonds sink
Google invests almost US$400 mil in ChatGPT rival Anthropic
New construction project brings Lian Beng's order book in Singapore to $1.9 bil
ST Engineering acquires shipyard site and assets from Keppel FELS for $95 mil
Fund managers trim respective stakes in Yangzijiang Shipbuilding and Delfi
IPO: F&B brand owner YKGI raising $16.6 mil to fund expansion plans
Earning Results
ES Group sounds profit warning; closes 40% down
Hiap Hoe, Emerging Towns & Cities, Santak send respective profit warnings
CapitaLand China Trust reports 2HFY2022 DPU of 3.40 cents, 24.4% lower y-o-y
Digital Core REIT's FY2022 DPU 4.8% below forecast
Nanofilm expects to report 30% decline in patmi for FY2022
CapitaLand Ascendas REIT posts 3.5% higher DPU for FY2022, occupancy hits 10-year high
Keppel Corporation's 2HFY2022 earnings drop by 40.6% y-o-y to $429.1 mil
LMIRT estimates aggregate leverage ratio to be at 44.6% as at Dec 2022
Oxley Holdings report 98.8% plunge in 1HFY2023 earnings of $277,000
KORE reports FY2022 adjusted DPU of 5.80 US cents, down 8.5% y-o-y
CICT reports 2HFY2022 DPU of 5.36 cents, up 2.7% y-o-y
MPACT reports 3QFY2023 DPU of 2.42 cents, unchanged from previous year
UG Healthcare, Meta Health sound respective profit warnings
Keppel DC REIT sees 3.7% increase in DPU of 10.214 cents for FY2022
OUE C-REIT reports higher net property income but lower DPU for 2HFY2022
📌
SGX & Other Newsfeed
💡 SGX <Analyst Research>
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