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Singapore Market forecast for December: Unload if there's still any window dressing this year end.
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Commentaries and Market Forecast :
Allow me to apologize of taking a break in Nov, to finish off mailing 2024 calendars to you. Hope that all calendars can reach you in time before New Year.
In the month of December, the stock markets would normally run up to boost the fund performances for year end book closure. But in 2023, the "preferred markets" go to India (BSE SENSEX) and Japan (Nikkei 225), and the rest of the Asian markets were relatively disappointing. Hang Seng Index broke down from the critical support of 17,000 points last month, and Strait Time Index markets also seem directionless after Q3 earnings season and broke down from 3,100 points support. Indexes that being sold on critical supports, sometimes tell us that fund managers are worrisome and pessimistic over the future economic outlook. Hence, if STI continue to range-bound in downward trend forming a descending triangle pattern, the likelihood to break down is higher than break up.
Currenly, the trading volumns are shrinkings, probably due to festives season just around the corner. After all, the portfolio traders are more risk-aversed and aiming only for small gains each day for survival. Hence, by the end of the day, retail investors are suckered by holding on to a portfolio that hardly moved much in value.
Soon we are stepping into festive season, will market window dress their portfolio at the very last minutes in Dec, we shall see.... But one thing for sure, the recent fall in oil price after the OPEC+ Meeting definitely not end of the story. We need to prepare commodities price will continue to increase if people fail to deal with the problems arise from climate change And this year Black Friday Sales, investors are waiting to look at Black Friday sales numbers to gauge the retail sector, and it turn out that (quote from https://techcrunch.com/) "A rush of deep discounts and the growth of flexible payment options were the drivers behind $9.8 billion in online sales in the U.S. on Black Friday â a record figure for the day". This sales figure, though show the economy is still on track, but the coming inflation data releasing soon on 12 Dec, and the last FOMC Meeting in 2023 fall on 12-13 Dec, will matter more to really gauge the health of the economy.
With banks continue to layoff more staffs for restructuring, our local banks also facing moderate sell down last few weeks. Before the arrival of the final quarter earning season in Feb, the markets will focus back on the economic data. Last week, the markets rumored about the US interest rate may start falling next year, and in fact the Fed Chair Powell did said "Fed Chair Powell calls talk of cutting rates âprematureâ and says more hikes could happen" Therefore, I suggested investors can consider increase the percentage of the portfolio size on interest bearing products, as it could be a better and less risky choice and hold more cash on hand for better opportunities next year.
Today, the markets focus on AI revolutions, like OpenAI saga about Sam Altman's return, had rocked the markets, suggested that the fund managers really favour the tech sector. For local market, the annoucement about Golden Agri-Resources replacing Keppel REIT in STI reserve list, also implied about the demand of agricultural and mineral products within ASEAN are getting strong. By looking at the issues being discussed during COP28 in Nov last month, the damages done to the Earth due to climate change had escalated, and become worsen.
For Dec, my only piece of advice for investors is to take the opportunities to unload some stocks and hold cash if STI rebound in DEC because the likihood of interest rate to rebound is high in 2024 as some other indicator like Hibor rate is moving up now. Investor must take note of it. With the theme of AI, Chip-making, Renewable energy, EV... continue favor by fund manager in 2024, there's one more day to go before officially step into another new season, I expected changes will take place in the market. Nonetheless, the last FOMC meeting and US CPI (Nov) data collide to take place next week, banks probably will under pressure still.
Straits Times Index (STI)
Immediate support at 3060 level in December
Observation : STI is directionless and MACD Bearish Crossover may form
Possible Direction : STI is converge to either break up or down in the next few weeks.
Remark: The 4Q reporting season will start later part of Jan, and investors need to take note.
Though the Factory activity in Singapore had improved slightly for a third consecutive month after a six-month slump [link] [EDB], STI remains at the crossroad of turn from bearish MACD crossover... the STI has a immediate support at 3065
5 Years Period :
2 Years Period :
Stock Pick for Analysis : CityDev
Immediate resistance at 6 (already break 20 years support level)
Observation : CityDev broke the 20 years critical support at 6.8
Possible Direction : Buy if price fall below 5.9
Remark: In 2024, high interest rate enviroment will continue to pressure the property sector. As such, investors can consider to wait till the 4Q earnings announcement before buying into the counter
20 Years Period :
Year 2023 :
Investor can refer the following links for update of latest news : https://www.theedgesingapore.com/ https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/
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Watch out for the 2023 SG Final Earnings Season kick start in the mid of Jan 2024...
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