( My Recommendation đ )
Singapore Market forecast for January: Earning Announcement
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Commentaries and Market Forecast :
In 2023, STI had been hovering above 3000 points, but failed to break up from 3400 points. But eventually, STI still manage to close the entire year at 3240 points by catchin a final run of 120 points at the final week of Dec.
The best performing markets in 2023 had to go to Japan (thanks to Warren Buffett buying into the country, boosted a upside of +35.7%) and India. And the worst performing market last year were China and Hong Kong⌠and markets believed that hot money had left these 2 countries and go to Japan and India.
Moving into the new year, the first thing that concerned the global market is whether cutting the US interest rate can really materialise this year. With US CPI rised slightly in Dec, the uptrend momentum in Dow Jones seem suddenly pulled back. Worries set in as oil price may continue to stay firm at $70-$80 level. Putting salt on a wound, the recent tension arise from the Red Sea attack had also impact the inflation one way or the other. It is because all cargo ships are forced to detour around south Africa to avoid the attack. The longer routes resulted increase in oil price as well as shipping fee that had gone more than double now.
And the next comes Bitcoin. With the approval of US SEC on launching Spot Bitcoin ETF, 11 ETFs had started trading at the second week after stepping into 2024. But as usual, what likely to happen is many a time when fund managers wrap up some pricy assets into a product like ETF for the mass markets to buy, you need to be careful on exactly what you are buying as it may be one way for them to spread the risk of holding such assets to others. And the one of the consequences is the price of such ETF may fall right after the product launch.
And the final earning season is just around the corner, fat âbonusâ like dividend may declare upon the earnings announcement. But looking at the non-oil domestic exports (NODX) that just released for Dec, shrank 1.5% yoy⌠again. I think itâs better to take the opportunities to continue unloading some more holdings if you didn't do so in the december rally.
The first FOMC is going to kick start on 30-31 Jan 2024, and market that betting on the rate cut seemed diverted. But the truth is that market is indeed more bearish now. And the âMagnificent 7â that had been well performed last year, can whether continue its tales of glory in 2024 bother many fund managers. With Apple being hit by losing the legal battle in the patent dispute that disrupted the sales of Apple Watches recently, if thereâs pull back in prices, investors can then consider to buy into these counters.
What is Magnificent 7?
From Google : âBank of America strategist Michael Hartnett coined the term "Magnificent 7" stocks for the most dominant tech companies. The group is made up of mega-cap stocks Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA).â
While U.S.-China war still on-going, again China facing another rival, EU on probing into China's EV. And China hits back EV with anti-dumping investigation into EU's Brandy. Honestly, the current situation is China very much being "Blanket party" by rivalries. and the same go to Hong Kong. The current situations have gone to the extend that even the current values of China stocks have fallen far below its fair values and still fail to attract investors to buy into the markets. To me, I never believe there's one market will either keep falling or keep rising. But China and Hong Kong may need more time, at least 2 more quarters for recovery.
Straits Times Index (STI)
Immediate support at 3120 level (18 Jan 24)
Observation :
STI retreated about 60% from the high of 3240 points after window dressing on the last day of 2023
Possible Direction :
Critical support at 3100 points as 4th Quarters Earning is just around the corner.
Remark:
The first FOMC will be held at the end of Jan, and investors need to take note if Fed Chair Powell would able to start cutting U.S. interest rate in 2024 as it will directly affect the market sentiments.
With Singapore's NODX dropped again in Dec last month, the manufacturing sectors may hit again and face selling pressure in first quarter.
Stock Pick for Analysis : Energy related sector and Gold
Starting from the first month of 2024, I want to talk more on what is my stock tick for 2024 in my coming Fengshui prediction writeup, and hopefully I can finish writing and get it ready before Chinese New Year.
And last year, I like plantation and energy sector like Golden Agri, Keppel and Sembcorp were my choices. In 2024, I continue to like energy counters but one penny catch my eye and this is GEO Energy. Anway, I will talk more in my Fengshui prediction writeup.
Investor can refer the following links for update of latest news : https://www.theedgesingapore.com/ https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/
đđSG Earning Announcementđ
Watch out for the 2024 SG Final Earnings Season kick start in the mid of Jan 2024...
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