(Update from 23 - 29 November and market forecast)
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US
Jerome Powell to set stage for slowing Fed rate hikes amid hawkish tone (ref)
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Singapore projects GDP growth to ease in 2023 amid global slowdown (ref)
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Singapore’s manufacturing output decreases by 0.8% in October, marking first y-o-y contraction since Sept 2021
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Points to Note
Temasek's failed investment in FTX is a 'pain' but let's 'fry other fishes', says Ho Ching (ref)
Challenging global environment and heightened economic uncertainties could impact credit quality in quarters ahead: MAS
October's headline inflation eases to 6.7% while core inflation eases to 5.1%
Crypto lender BlockFi goes bankrupt in wake of FTX's fall
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My latest Market View published in ZaoBao in the month of Nov:
Market Summary dated on 25 Nov: Here's the link
Market Summary dated on 29 Nov: Here's the link
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To Investors :
Investment tip takeaway 🦉 this week:
Hold your sell for the month of December
Singapore's GDP was forecasted last Friday, anticipating an increase of 0.5% to 2.5% in 2023, drop from the previous forecast of 3.5%, as a slower growth is expected as the world-wide economies are likely entering into a global recession. While awaiting for the leading indicators of Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMI to be announced this coming Friday, the market is expecting a better-than-last-month figures to be announced since the retail sales are always boosted during the festive seasons with more shoppers and people around to party through the new year.
In summary, STI will continue to stand firm above 3200 -3210 points as long as the economic data are in line with the market expectations. If the China's lockdown protests can be well-contained by the China government, the stock market should be not impacted too much. But Monday sell-down revealed one truth about the fund managers now are more vulnerable than before towards uncertainties.
Under the high interest environment, the T-Bills, SGS bonds and SSB are getting more popular than before. However, chances are more money could be sucked up by these debt instruments, and may left lesser cash flowing around in the market. Therefore, fund managers will tend to be more selective with their choice of investments, and companies that can give out dividends that are growing in line with the rising interest rate will be considered as favourable. However, if you are looking at defensive counters yet not generous in their payout towards shareholders, should also be avoided.
It's times to re-strategize our portfolio for 2023, many counters that are chased after by funds and investors may not receive the same attention next year. I will start doing my 2023 fengshui prediction for investment in the next 2 weeks. Hope that everyone can be more actively managed their portfolio this year end for preparing a brand new start of the Rabbit year.
Q3 Earning Result Announcement :
ST Engineering reports 3QFY2022 revenue of $2.2 bil, up 22.2% y-o-y
Frencken reports 3QFY2022 earnings of $11 million, down 25.7% y-o-y
Thai Beverage reports FY2022 earnings of 30.1 billion baht; BeerCo earnings up 24.2%
Beng Kuang Marine back in the black with 9MFY2022 earnings of $1.02 million
Kimly reports better revenue for FY2022 but earnings drop on higher costs
Marco Polo Marine's FY2022 earnings jump on higher chartering income
Jumbo back in the black for 2HFY2022
Keong Hong's net loss widens
BRC Asia reports record earnings of $90.2 million for FY2022, 12 cents worth of dividends heading shareholders' way
LHN Limited reports 63.3% y-o-y surge in FY2022's earnings of $45.8 mil
SG Earning Announcement
Watch out for the Final Year Earning reporting season in 2nd part of Jan 2023...
📍Economic Calendar: 21st - 25th Nov📍
Singapore
(Tuesday, November 29, 2022)
Bank Lending
(Friday, December 2, 2022)
Retail Sales
Manufacturing PMI
United States
(Tuesday, November 29, 2022)
CB Consumer Confidence
(Wednesday, November 30, 2022)
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, GDP (QoQ), GDP Price Index (QoQ), JOLTs Job Openings, Pending Home Sales MoM, Crude Oil Inventories
Fed Chair Powell Speaks
(Thursday, December 1, 2022)
Core PCE Price Index (MoM), Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Spending MoM, Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI
(Friday, December 2, 2022)
Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate Nov
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Next 2022 FOMC Meetings:
December. 14-15
China / Hong Kong
CNY
(Tuesday, November 29, 2022)
Chinese Composite PMI, Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI
(Wednesday, November 30, 2022)
Caxin Manufacturing PMI
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Last Week Economic Data Review :
Singapore
GDP YoY Q3 (4.5% ➡️ 4.1%)
GDP QoQ Q3 (6.3% ➡️ 4.6%)
better than expected 1.3%
Core CPI YoY Oct (5.3% ➡️ 5.1%)
CPI YoY Oct (7.5% ➡️ 6.7%)
Industrial Production YoY Oct (1.6% ➡️ -0.8%)
Industrial Production MoM Oct (0.2% ➡️ 0.9%)
United States
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (-5.835M ➡️ -4.800M)
Building Permits (1,564M ➡️1,512M)
Core Durable Goods Orders Oct (-0.9% ➡️0.5%)
Initial Jobless Claims (223K ➡️240K)
Manufacturing PMI Nov (50.4 ➡️47.6)
S&P Global Composite PMI Nov (48.2 ➡️46.3)
Service PMI Nov (47.8 ➡️46.1)
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (54.7 ➡️56.8)
New Home Sales Oct (588K ➡️632K)
Crude Oil Inventories (-5.40M ➡️-3.691M)
China / Hong Kong
(Monday, November 21, 2022))
HK, CPI (YoY) Oct (4.40% ➡️1.80%)
(Saturday, November 26, 2022))
CNY, Chinese Industrial Profit (-2.3% ➡️-3.0%)
“Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced.” — James Baldwin
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Other Focus (Highlights of Results / Corporate Actions):
Other extracted news:
Yangzijiang Financial Holding announces new head of direct investments
Fitch Ratings downgrades LMIRT on higher debt costs, currency impact, and upcoming debt maturities
Keppel delivers first of three rigs originally built for Borr Drilling to ADNOC, collects payment of US$160 mil
F&N completes Cocoaland acquisition, eyes diversification of business
Yeo Hiap Seng completes review of loss understatement, finds no fraud nor other significant errors
DBS cuts overall DPU estimates and target prices for S-REITs on slower growth momentum
Singapore police say investigations into Binance.com ongoing
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SGX & Other Newsfeed
💡 SGX <Analyst Research>
📈 [REIT Watch on The Business Times - Singapore-based office S-REITs see growth in occupancy and rent reversions]
According to JLL, Singapore office rents in Q3 2022 have reached a near 14-year high, exceeding pre-pandemic peak.
CBD Grade A office rents have taken just 18 months to recover the grounds lost due to Covid-19. S-REITs with Singapore based office assets - namely CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, Suntec REIT, Keppel REIT, OUE Commercial REIT, and Lendlease Global Commercial REIT - reported growth in rental reversions and improvements in occupancy rates.
Read on for a round-up of their latest financial results / business updates: bit.ly/3UaZH4E
🎥 Webinar: Developments in the Electric Vehicle (EV) sector and how NIO Inc are capturing these new opportunities to stay competitive in the EV sector
Date/Time: 29 Nov (Tue), 730pm
The Electric Vehicle (EV) sector is one of the fastest growing sector globally as more are concerned about the climate and the environment.
Join us at this webinar with NIO's Head of Investor Relations, Rui Chen, where he will share more about Electric Vehicle market, latest development in the industry, and how NIO, a young car company, are capturing these new opportunities to offer the ultimate user experience; followed by a fireside chat with SGX Market Strategist, Geoff Howie, alongside a live Q&A session.
Register now at: bit.ly/3GNQ7Bw
SGX Research's 10 in 10 with Frasers Centrepoint Trust (J69U | FCT SP)
Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) is one of the largest suburban retail mall owners in Singapore with AUM of approximately S$6.2B. As Singapore transits into the endemic phase, FCT believes that its malls are well-positioned to benefit from post-COVID trends such as hybrid work arrangements and the shift to omnichannel retailing.
Read more at: bit.ly/3OtOF9f
📈 S-REITs Narrow Discount to Book Value on Global Rate Outlook
With global inflation set to outpace global growth by 5% in 2022, the FTSE ST REIT Index has generated a 10% decline in total return this year, with the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index declining 22%.
The FTSE ST REIT is currently trading at an 8% discount to book value, up from a 16% discount a month ago. Since 21 Oct, majority expectations for the 14 FOMC Fed Funds Rate have markedly moved from 75bps to 50bps, while the 10-year UST yields have declined from above 4.2% to below 3.8%.
The most defensive REIT and property trusts in the YTD included CDL Hospitality Trusts, Far East Hospitality Trust, Sabana Industrial REIT, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust and Suntec REIT.
Read more at: bit.ly/3EtXOtT
Closing
With the rising interest rate, I believed investors are getting more more risk-averse with the current economic situation, would seriously consider to park their money in fixed deposit with the bank to earn higher interest. And now, you may consider to earn a higher interest return with the idle cash that standby inside your trading account while awaiting for trading opportunities... Try our Phillip Money Market Fund SGD : 2.3439% p.a.
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