Market Update for 3 - 13 Jan 2023
Market forecast from 16 - 20 Jan 2023
Past Events last Weeks:
➡️Fed wants 'flexibility' on rates as inflation remains key focus... (Reuters) dated 5 Jan
➡️Asian Financial Forum 2023, Hong Kong (11 - 12 Jan 23)
➡️World Bank Warns Of Global Recession Risk (Forbes)
➡️United Stated: CPI (YoY) Dec : 7.1% to 6.5%
Market Forecast:
In the beginning of year 2023, the best performing market was none other Hong Kong's HSI, from the worst of 14,687 points rebounded 6000 over points within 2 months, currently sitting firm above 21,000 points. Thanks to the China border reopening, analyses expected the demands of goods and services, rental markets, constructions... etc are making the comeback with the removal of travelling restrictions. But any further upside of HSI, still requires strong economic data to back it up. Therefore, investors should not rush into Hong Kong Market now if you had missed the early entry of this rally. The overbought signals are flicking.
And last week, the markets were all eyes on the announcement of U.S.'s CPI, as the next scheduled FOMC meeting that held between 31st Jan - 1st Feb will decide on the new rate hike to be 0.25% or 0.5%. With more and more warning signs of recessions are flashing in the market, the annual earnings season is getting important to investors, as they want to ensure the profit margin of their vested sectors are healthy enough to withstand any adversities.
Though, the inflation seem well contained as CPI trending lower, the Singapore's economic data reported so far, continue showing weakness in export demands. Beside lower GDP, consumer spending power also affected as retail sales had been dropping in consecutive months.
In the month of January, my pick of the month for trading SG market is Property sector, especially whenever there is any sudden pullback in prices, traders can consider to buy in for short-term trade. But you should take chance to let go all and profit take by first week of Feb. In conclusion, investors can consider to unload counters include banking stocks, chip-makers, properties, REITs and any other counters that had suddenly surged after earning announcements. This year, it may be a good idea to profit take rather than hold on for dividend, as the dividend payout period for most good stocks need to wait till April for entitlement.
My latest Market View published in ZaoBao in the month of January 2023:
Market Summary dated on 10 Jan 23:
Market Summary dated on 6 Jan 23
Market Summary dated on 6 Jan 23:
🌀SG Earning Announcement🌀
Watch out for the Final Year Earning reporting season in 2nd part of Jan 2023...
🌀 Highlights of Economic Calendar: 16 - 20 Jan 23 🌀
Mon, 16 Jan 23 SGD : Non-Oil Exports
SGD : Trade Balance
CNY : Chinese GDP, Q4 CNY : Industrial Production
CNY : Chinese Unemployment Rate
Tues, 17 Jan 23 USD : OPEC Monthly Report
USD : NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Wed, 18 Jan 23 JPY : BoJ Press Conference , BoJ Interest Rate Decision
GBP : CPI, Dec
USD : Core PPI / PPI
USD : Core Retail Sales , Retail Sales
USD : Industrial Production
USD : Business Inventories , Retail Inventories Ex Auto
Thu, 19 Jan 23 USD : Building Permits
USD : Housing Starts
USD : Initial Jobless Claims
USD : Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
USD : Crude Oil Inventories
Fri, 19 Jan 23 USD : Existing Home Sales
🌀 Things to note of past Economic Calendar: 2 - 13 Jan 23 🌀
Singapore, SGD: GDP (QoQ), Q4 : 4.6% to 0.8%
GDP (YoY), Q4 : 4.2% to 2.2%
URA Property Index : 3.8% to 0.20%
Manufacturing PMI, Dec : 49.8 to 49.7
Retail Sales (MoM), Nov : 0.1% to -3.7%
Retail Sales (YoY), Nov : 10.3% to 6.2%
Foreign Serves USD (MoM), Dec : 291.3B to 289.5B
Unit States, USD: Fed's Chair Powell Spoke: Powell says Fed might have to make unpopular decisions to stabilize prices (CNBC)
ISM Manufacturing Employment, Dec 48.4 to 51.4
JOLTs Job Openings. Nov 10.512M to 10.458M
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Dec : 182K to 235K
Exports : 256.9B to 251.90B
Imports : 334.80B to 313.40B
Initial Jobless Claims : 223K to 204K
Trade Balance, Nov : 220.50K to 213.75K
S&P Global Composite PMI, Dec : 46.4 to 45.0
Services PMI, Dec : 46.2 to 44.7
Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec : 256K to 223K
Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec : 202K to 220K
Unemployment Rate, Dec : 3.6% to 3.5%
Factory Orders (MoM), Nov : 0.4% to -1.8%
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI : 56.5 to 49.6
CB Employment Trends Index, Dec : 117.14 to 116.31
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock : from -1.300M to 3.298M to 14.865M
Core CPI (MoM) Dec : 0.2% to 0.3%
Core CPI (YoY) Dec : 6.0% to 5.7%
Core CPI Index Dec : 300.07 to 300.97
CPI (MoM) Dec : 0.1% to -0.1%
CPI (YoY) Dec : 7.1% to 6.5%
Initial Jobless Claims : 206K to 205K
Federal Budget Balance, Dec -249.0B to -85.0B
Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks : 3.050T to 3.117T
Export Price Index (MoM) : -0.4% to -2.6%
Import Price Index (MoM) : -0.7% to 0.4%
China, CNY: Caixin Services PMI Dec : 46.7 to 48.0
Caixin Manufacturing PMI Dec : 49.4 to 49.0
FX Reserves USD, Dec : 3.117T to 3.128T
New Loans (Dec) : 1210.0B to 1400.0B
Chinese Total Social Financing Dec : 1990.0B to 1310.0B
CPI (YoY) Dec : 1.6% to 1.8%
CPI (MoM) Dec : -0.2% to 0.0%
PPI (YoY) Dec : -1.3% to -0.7%
Exports (YoY) Dec : -8.7% to -9.9%
Imports (YoY) Dec : -10.6% to -7.5%
Trade Balance USD, Dec : 69.84B to 78.00B
Hong Kong, HKD: Manufacturing PMI Dec : 48.7 to 49.6
Foreign Reserves (USD) Dec : 423.20B to 424.00B
Australia, AUD: CPI (YoY) Q4 : 6.9% to 7.3%
Exports (MoM) Nov -1.2% to -0.4%
Imports (MoM) Nov -2.0% to -1.5%
Trade Balance, Nov : 12.217B to 13.201B
British, GBP: GDP (MoM) 0.5% to 0.1%
GDP (YoY) : 1.5% to 0.2%
Manufacturing Production (MoM), Nov : 0.7% to -0.5%
Trade Balance Nov : -12.26B to -15.62B
📌
Other Focus (Highlights of Results / Corporate Actions):
Other extracted news:
Temasek-backed data centre operator explores over US$1 billion IPO, sources say
Twitter tells Asia HQ staff to clear desks, work from home
Temasek’s GenZero co-leads US$15 mil round into SaaS climate tech firm Chooose
Shares in Genting Singapore can now be traded under the CPFIS
UOB prices $850 mil perpetual capital securities with 5.25% coupon
Olam Agri’s IPO rides on the back of enhanced global focus on food security
GIC joins Saudi wealth fund in US$930 mil pre-IPO bet on anime giant
Marco Polo Marine signs landmark MOU with Korean companies to pursue offshore wind vessel projects in South Korea
Macquarie Asset Management to take 40% stake in Temasek subsidiary
SingPost acquires additional 37% total stake in Freight Management Holdings for A$175.4 mil
CDG invests $5.4 mil into teleoperation software company to boost autonomous vehicle capabilities
Microsoft considers US$10 billion investment in ChatGPT creator
Jamie Dimon says Fed may need to hike interest rates beyond 5%
World's biggest chipmaker TSMC misses sales forecasts as demand wanes
Civmec secures over A$330 mil contract for Rio Tinto Western Range Project
Jack Ma is giving up control of Ant Group
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) subsidiary faces US$4.8 mil winding up claim
Samudera Shipping acquires 2 container vessels for US$66 mil
Sheng Siong to open fifth store in China
Hong Kong to reopen border with China, with 60,000 person quota
Jumbo and Thakral in the buyback spotlight
Singapore's retail sales up by 6.2% y-o-y to $4.0 bil in November 2022
📌
SGX & Other Newsfeed
💡 SGX <Analyst Research>
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