( My Recommendation đ )
Stock Market forecast for April : FOMC still controls the markets
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Commentaries and Market Forecast :
Last 2 months, many financial theories were put into test of truth as financial markets were not operated the same ways as it used to be. One good example: BOJ had ended its negative interest rate policy for the first time after17 years. And many FX traders were expecting to short the Nikkei 225 and buy into Japanese Yen.. because the stock market should fall on the increase of interest rate and in reciprocal, the domestic currency should rise⌠But in contrary, the realities were unexpected as Nikkei 225 closed higher on that day but Japanese Yen didn't get strengthen at all.
And recently, USD got strengthen in mid of rising Gold price, and the see-saw relationship between gold and the USD didn't happen. So how to invest wisely in these irrational financial markets? The truth is never easy... especially, funds were seem leaving Singapore previously for other countries. Looking the share price of local banks still remain strong going up but not for the rest of other sectors, are buying into banks the only best bet right now?Â
Under the current political mess like wars, strategic rivalries, conflict of interests... etc., causing the actual valuation of many companies in Asia being undermined. Therefore, even experienced traders may find it tough to make profit in these irrational markets if depending on Asia alone. Hence, we may not want to just rely on one type of investment. Previously, Gold was in the comparison with Bitcoin, and even to an extent that there's saying about Bitcoin may replace Gold, but today they are rising in prices together... speaking one simple fact, traders are into commodities.Â
While investing into stocks alone can be hard, we can consider to buy in some units of Unit trusts to diverify, as Unit Trusts do have a wider exposure over multiple sectors across a few countries. And currently, some funds had been pulled back a lot and yet making any strong comeback.
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In April, markets will continue to find clues with what the Fed Chairman Powell going to say in coming FOMC meeting held on 30 April - 1 May. The likelihood is Powell will remain ambiguous in his statement and my guess is the same as what market rumor about on the first cut should in June.
Bear in mind that the 1st quarter just ended, and the timeline of the companies releasing the earnings reports for the past 3 months, will probably starting in the 3rd week of April till end of May. Many stocks whose prices are still remained stagnant, in my 2 cents, are worth to scoop up some to keep. As I still believe there's a rally in May... June onwards. In fact, shares prices of many counters are stablising in the past month.
Straits Times Index (STI) :
Immediate support at 3180 level (31 Mar 24)
Observation :
STI climbed about 120 points in the month of March, from 3110 closed 3224 on the last working day of March, thanks to the banks.
Possible Direction :
Immediate support at 3180 points as this point sit right on 21 days MA. But MACD and RSI showing the sign of possible downtrend, investors can consider to observe longer before entering the market
Remark:
The Feb data on Singapore Industrial Production had outbeat the market expectation and up much higher to 14.2%, compared to Jan at 0.6%. Though core CPI continued to rise to 3.6% from last month of 3.1%, the general economy remain cautious and in line with market expectation. The coming FOMC will be held at end of April, and the Fed Chair Powell will continue his grey answer about cutting U.S. interest rate in 2024 is possible but still need to see more good inflations readings and therefore doesn't need to be in hurry to cut rates ... as such remarks give hope to the fund managers to stay on.
With Singapore's Manufacturing PMI and Retail Sales releasing soon in the first week of April, markets need more certainties about the economy is back on track
Stock Pick for Analysis : Genting Singapore
(though I like SIA too)
Genting Singapore was under selling pressure from the news about Chinese government issued a public reminder on WeChat for Chinese citizens to âstay away from gamblingâ about 2 weeks ago. But technically, this counter seems done with the correction soon, and the traffic to Malaysia is on the rise over the recent years. Thanks to the favorable exchange rate, as well as relatively lower living cost, Singapore visitors not only cross the border and travel to the North for spending, they also set up a 2nd home for weekend stay. So Malaysia-based entertainment businesses still remain attractive in one way or another.
Investor can refer the following links for update of latest news : https://www.theedgesingapore.com/https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/
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