( My Recommendation đ )
Market forecast for 2nd Week of May :
Start to Stay Defensive... and reduce portfolio slowly to increase cash holding
This week, I will stick on to the strategic move by holding more cash and reduce share holdings, likely for the rest of the month. After all, the current situation of banking crisis is far from over, therefore investors need not to buy into banking stocks on pull back for now. Better buying opportunities will come later of the year.
Singapore's economic data still weak, therefore STI's support level will continue hover around at 3260 points, as the 50 days MA is falling exactly at this level. Hence, STI will not pull back too much this week as Singapore economic data still look "decent", but the market will not increase holding till the investment climate is more stable and predictable.
Market Update for 02 - 08 May 2023
Investor's Must-Know
Past Economic Events to note last week:
Singapore
Hightlights
The Singapore Manufacturing PMI slid to 49.7 in April 2023 from 49.9 in March, staying contractionary for the second successive period amid the global economic slowdown [Trading Economics] [Straits Times]
Singapore retail sales up 4.5% in March, extending February's growth [Business Times]
Economic Data (last week)
Manufacturing PMI : Apr: 49.9 to 49.7
Retail Sales : Mar: yoy: 12.6% to 4.5%, mom: 4.1% to 2.2%
United States
Hightlights
Federal Reserve raises interest rate 0.25% to curb inflation, and signals at pause in hikes [Forbes] [CNBC]
Banking Crisis Continues: PacWest, Western Alliance, First Horizon stocks trumbled last Thursday as fears of system-wide banking contagion persist after three bank failures in less than two months, including the second biggest collapse in U.S. The next day, regional banks rebounded on more calls to impose ban on short selling. [Reuters] [New York Times]
Debt ceiling negotiations become urgent as Treasury says the U.S. could hit limit in weeks [Youtube] [US Chamber]
Strong jobs data (Nonfarm Payrolls) lifted the US stock markets last Friday [FXStreet]
Economic Data (last week)
ISM Manufacturing PMI Apr: 46.3 to 47.1
Factory Orders Mar mom: -1.1% to 0.9%
JOLTs Job Openings Mar: 9.974M to 9.590M
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Apr: 142K to 296K
S&P Global Composite PMI Apr: 52.3 to 53.4
Service PMI Apr: 52.6 to 53.6
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Apr: 51.2 to 51.9
Crude Oil Inventories -5.054M to -1.280M
Fed Interest Rate Decision 5.00% to 5.25% FOMC Statement [Federal Reserve]
Imports / Exports 250.90B to 256.20B / 321.50B to 320.40B
Initial Jobless Claims 229K to 242K
Nonfarm Productivity q1 qoq: 1.6% to -2.7%
Trade Balance Mar: -70.60B to -64.20B
Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks 3.132T to 3.166T
Nonfarm Payrolls Apr: 165K to 253K
Private Nonfarm Payrolls Apr: 123K to 230K
Unemployment Rate Apr: 3.5% to 3.4%
Other Countries
China, Hong Kong
Hong Kong exits recession as spending boom revives growth.
HSBC soothes shareholders by restoring dividend as profit triples.
China's FX Reserves in USD from 3.184T to 3.205T
China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI Apr from 50.0 to 49.5
China's Caixin Services PMI Apr from 57.8 to 56.4
Hong Kong's GDP : yoy from -4.2% to 2.7%, qoq from 0.0% to 5.3%
Hong Kong's Manufacturing PMI Apr from 53.5 to 52.4
Hong Kong's Interest Rate Decision from 5.25% to 5.50%
Japan
Japanâs Kishida visits S Korea to boost ties amid N Korea threat
Observation: Nikkei 225 stayed at recorded high since last year September... and at overbought region. Need to be awared of any possible pull back.
Europe and Others
FTSE 100, DAX, CAC 40 and EURO STOXX 50
ECB slows rate hike pace but signals more to come [Reuters]
Coming Important Economic Data to take note:
âĄď¸Singapore
- -
âĄď¸United States
Monday, May 8, 2023 : CB Employment Trends Index
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 : EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
Wednesday, May 10, 2023 : Core CPI***
: CPI**
: Crude Oil Inventories
: Federal Budget Balance Thursday, May 11, 2023 : OPEC Monthly Report
: Initial Jobless Claims***
: Core PPI / PPI
: Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks
Friday, May 12, 2023 : Export Price Index
: Import Price Index
âĄď¸China
Monday, May 8, 2023 : FX Reserves
Wednesday, May 8, 2023 : Exports / Imports
: Trade Balance
Wednesday, May 10, 2023 : CPI
: PPI
Market Focus that Matters
đ đHighlightsđ
MAS : imposes additional capital requirement on DBS after digibank disruption on May 5
MAS tops the list of reported gold buyers in 1Q2023: WGC report
Local :
Seatrium secures contact for offshore projects worth $500 mil
Keppel Corp sets âambitiousâ interim AUM target of $100 bil by end-2026, embarks on major reorganisation
Dyson to build battery plant in Singapore, boost AI development
Others :
Warren Buffett predicts earnings decline at Berkshire units
Alibaba's global online commerce arm weighs a US IPO
HSBC shares rise after lender announces US$2 billion share buyback
đ đSG Earning Announcementđ
Watch out for the First Quarter Earning reporting season in Apr-May 2023...
Venture Corp reports 12.4% lower earnings of $73.6 mil for 1QFY2023
F&N reports earnings of $55.0 mil for the 1HFY2023, 19.8% lower y-o-y
Far East Orchard reports 67.9% surge in net profit in 1QFY2023
AIMS APAC REIT reports 11.3% increase in 2HFY2023 DPU of 5.244 cents
Great Eastern Holdings reports earnings of $244.0 mil for 1QFY2023
OUE Commercial REIT's revenue and NPI in 1QFY2023 boosted by Hilton Singapore
Aztech Global reports net profit of $13.4 mil in 1QFY2023, down 3.6% y-o-y
ARA US Hospitality Trust reports 1QFY2023 NPI of US$6.4 mil, 19% higher y-o-y
FLCT reports 1HFY2023 DPU of 3.52 cents, 8.6% lower y-o-y
đ
đLatest Market View published in ZaoBao/Mediađ
(May 2023)
Coming Schedule
12 May 2023: I will be on air at 5:35pm @ FM95.8
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đSGX & Other Newsfeedđ
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