Market(Update from 30 Nov - 12 Dec and market forecast)
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Microsoft to buy 4% of London Stock Exchange
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China's Xi calls for oil trade in yuan at Gulf summit in Riyadh
(click here)
Fed's message that rates will stay on hold for 'some time' clashes with 2023 rate-cut bets
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Points to Note
SGX total securities market down by 3.2% y-o-y to $27.25 bil in Nov
BIS Warns of Leverage, Liquidity Risks, and the Need for a Fed Backstop
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My latest Market View published in ZaoBao in the month of December:
Market Summary dated on 10 Dec: Here's the link
Market Summary dated on 5 Dec: Here's the link
Market Summary dated on 1 Dec: Here's the link
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To Investors :
Investment tip takeaway 🦉 this week:
Market take cover ahead of CPI @ 13Dec and FOMC @14-15Dec... but uptrend still intact
Last 2 Weeks, STI was on the roller-coaster ride, ran up from 3230 points and hit the recent high of 3310 points but retreated back to 3230 support level. Though, a double top pattern was created in the past these 2 weeks, but STI should be still well supported at 3210 level.
China recently relaxed on strict Covid rules, had pushed the HSI and the China stock indexes to surge almost 5000 points to recent high of 19,800 points for at least 30% rebound from record low of 14,600 points since Feb 2021. And this strong rebound from HSI could probably channel the cash flow back to HSI and rendered the rest of the Asia markets seem less vibrant relatively
Another market focus last week, was Xi Jinping of China visited Saudi Arabia (ref link) to strengthen the coordination on energy policy and exploration (a statement from the Chinese foreign ministry), intend to bring pledge of more oil trades between China and Saudi. Moving forward, I expected more collaboration between countries for partnership on energy so that the less developed countries can be less dependent of the governing of the developed dominant nations. I believe the energy prices will remain as the focal point globally as world moving into the post-Covid era.
As market is getting more fearsome with Blackstone limiting investors' withdrawal from its $125 billion real estate investment fund, causing a spike in redemption requests. As FOMC will soon announcing another rate hike after CPI data on Tuesday, the market sentiments are sinking deeper into pessimism as economy is getting harder to escape from recession next year. Nonetheless, every bear-market normally last about 6 months before any sign of economy recoveries. Hence, investors need to budget well for the first 2 quarters of 2023.
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Stock Market “Feng Shui” Prediction 2023
"Prepared for the unexpected than to be caught unprepared"
Before I start my 2023 market forecast, I believe that the stock market can continue to stay higher for the month of Dec 22 and Jan 23. But in 2023, I want to divide the year into first half and second half for discussion.
For first half of 2023 (before entering the month of August), I believe it's going to be tough as it's difficult to escape from recession. People may filled with pessimism as conflicts between countries continues, causing strategic paradigm shift over global employment demand of IT tech talents. Therefore, the chance of the stock market may fall again after Chinese New Year. is high. Especially in the month of May, June and July, news on war may make a comeback. Inflation and interest rate hike will continue to pressure to the property markets.
On the flip of the coin, investors can consider to bottom fishing the over-sold blue chip counters during the second quarter 2023. As the stock market should be rebound after July and it will be much better all the way till end of the year. In 2024, it will be a new epoch that we need to change our perspective and adopt the new way of looking at things...
Last but not least, extend from year 2022 where the industry of Fire and Wood elements will still the better performed sectors, e.g. Oil and Gas Industry and Agriculture, relatively. They are still my tick for the first half of 2023.
SG Earning Announcement
Watch out for the Final Year Earning reporting season in 2nd part of Jan 2023...
📍Economic Calendar: 12 - 16 Nov📍
Singapore
(Tue, Dec 13/14, 2022)
Unemployment Rate
(Thu, Dec 15, 2022)
Non-Oil Exports YoY/MoM
Trade Balance
United States
(Mon, Dec 12, 2022)
Federal Budget Balance Nov
(Tue, Dec 13, 2022)
Core CPI
CPI
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
(Wed, Dec 14, 2022)
Export Price Index MoM
Import Price Index MoM
Crude Oil Inventories
FOMC Statement
Fed Interest Rate Decision
(Thu, Dec 15, 2022)
Core Retail Sales
Initial Jobless Claims
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Retail Sales (MoM)
Industrial Production YoY/MoM
(Fri, Dec 16, 2022)
Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
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Next 2022 FOMC Meetings:
(To be confirmed)
China / Hong Kong
CNY
(Wed, Dec 14, 2022)
Fixed Asset Investment YoY
Industrial Production YoY
Chinese Industrial Production
HKD
(Fri, Dec 16, 2022)
Unemployment Rate
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Last Week Economic Data Review :
Singapore
Bank Lending (838.8B ➡️ 826.1B)
Retail Sales (YoY) Oct (11.3% ➡️ 10.4%)
Retail Sales (MoM) Oct (3.2% ➡️ 0.1%)
Manufacturing PMI (49.7 ➡️ 49.8)
Foreign Reserves USD (MoM) (282.3B ➡️ 291.3B)
United States
CB Consumer Confidence (102.2 ➡️ 100.2)
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (-4.819M ➡️ -7.850M ➡️ -6.426M)
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (239K ➡️ 127K)
GDP (QoQ) Q3 (2.6% ➡️ 2.9%)
GDP Price Index (QoQ) (9.0% ➡️ 4.3%)
Goods Trade Balance (Oct) (-92.22B ➡️ -99.00B)
Chicago PMI (Nov) (45.2 ➡️ 37.2)
JOLTs Job Openings (10.687M ➡️ 10.334M)
Pending Home Sales MoM (-8.7% ➡️ -4.6%)
Crude Oil Inventories (-3.691M ➡️ -12.580M ➡️ -5.187M)
Fed Chair Powell Speaks (ref link)
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (0.5% ➡️ 0.2%)
Initial Jobless Claims (241K ➡️ 225K ➡️ 230K)
Personal Spending MoM (0.6% ➡️ 0.8%)
Manufacturing PMI (47.6 ➡️ 47.7)
ISM Manufacturing PMI Nov (50.2 ➡️ 49.0)
Nonfarm Payrolls (284K ➡️ 263K)
Private Nonfarm Payrolls (248K ➡️ 221K)
Unemployment Rate Nov (5.2% ➡️ 5.1%)
OPEC Meeting (ref link)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Nov (54.4 ➡️ 56.5)
Exports (258.50B ➡️ 256.60B)
Imports (331.30B ➡️ 334.80B)
Trade Balance Oct (-74.1B ➡️ -78.20B)
Unit Labor Costs QoQ (3.5% ➡️ 2.4%)
Core PPI MoM (0.1% ➡️ 0.4%)
PPI MoM (0.3% ➡️ 0.3%)
China / Hong Kong
CNY, Chinese Composite PMI (49.0 ➡️ 47.1)
CNY, Manufacturing PMI (49.2 ➡️ 48.0)
CNY, Non-Manufacturing PMI (48.7 ➡️ 46.7)
CNY, Caxin Manufacturing PMI (49.2 ➡️ 49.4)
CNY, Exports YoY (-0.3% ➡️-8.7%)
CNY, Imports YoY (-0.7% ➡️ -10.6%)
CNY, Trade Balance USD YoY (85.15B ➡️ 69.84B)
HKD, Foreign Reserves USD Nov (417.20B ➡️ 423.20B)
CNY, CPI YoY (2.1% ➡️ 1.6%)
CNY, PPI YoY (-1.3% ➡️ -1.3%)
“Be the change that you wish to see in the world.” — Mahatma Gandhi
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Other Focus (Highlights of Results / Corporate Actions):
Other extracted news:
Soilbuild awarded new construction contracts worth $140.4 mil
Cromwell European REIT completes divestment in France for $15.7 mil at 55% premium to latest valuation
Temasek-backed ShopBack closes US$200 mil Series F round, 'gears up' for IPO
Keppel subsidiary spends $311k to increase stake in Thailand district cooling system project
Far East Orchard acquires student accommodation property in UK for $22.9 mil
Leadership shuffles occur at ComfortDelGro and subsidary SBS Transit
Sasseur REIT gearing up for long-term growth
Digital Core REIT buys back units; Wilmar chairman Kuok sees stake rise
All digital banks have joined Credit Bureau Singapore, now able to retrieve consumer credit reports
Sasseur REIT's CFO 'interviewed' by MAS and CAD for probe unrelated to REIT
Olam Agri secures US$2 bil bridge loan facility to support group reorganisation plan
Capitaland India Trust signs MOU to develop data centre in Hyderabad for $210 mil
Yangzijiang Financial reports lower income in 3QFY2022 business update; NPL from property loans up
Tesla reduces Shanghai output in latest sign of sluggish demand
OPEC+ agrees to keep oil production unchanged
Sats reveals funding structure for WFS acquisition
TSMC plans to make more advanced chips in US at urging of Apple
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SGX & Other Newsfeed
💡 SGX <Analyst Research>
📈 China-focused Plays Gained 5% in November on Key Policy Moves
Chinese stocks saw strong rebound in Nov on the back of key policy moves from China centred on economic recovery, as well as less hawkish rates expectations in the US. During the month, the CSI 300 Index and FTSE China A50 Index gained 9.5% and 12.4% respectively to reverse 4 consecutive months of decline, while the Hang Seng Index outperformed major global indices with a 23.2% jump.
Singapore lists close to 100 stocks which derive at least 50% of their revenue from China. The top 10 most traded stocks within this segment averaged 5.0% total returns in Nov, with 5 out of the 10 stocks notching double digit gains over the month.
Read more: bit.ly/3Bu1zyN
SGX Research's 10 in 10 with Sasseur REIT (CRPU | SASSR SP)
Sasseur REIT (SSREIT) is the first outlet REIT listed in Asia with total assets of RMB 8.5B, comprising 4 outlets strategically located in China's high-growth cities. With China's outlet industry expected to become the world's largest outlet market in terms of sales revenue by 2030, SSREIT offers investors exposure to this specialised segment of the retail industry, and the country's large and rising middle class consumer base.
Read more: bit.ly/3VIOc5V
Most Actives Average 7% Total Return in Nov, on S$700M of Net Fund Inflow
The STI booked a 7% total return in Nov, with Singapore's 100 most traded stocks in the 2022 YTD paralleling the monthly return. The Consumer Cyclical Sector led the most traded stocks over the month with Genting Sing, Jardine C&C, NIO Inc, The Hour Glass, Parkson Retail and mm2 Asia averaging 15% total returns.
Singapore's 100 most actively traded stocks booked S$712M of net fund inflow in Nov, with Banks, Consumer Cyclicals and the Telecommunication Sectors leading the net fund inflow, while the REIT, Energy and Healthcare Sectors booked the most net fund outflows.
Read more: bit.ly/3ix3rjN
📈 [REIT Watch on The Business Times - S-REITs rebound 6% in November]
The iEdge S-REIT Index recovered 5.7% in total returns in November, after a 5.6% decline in October. It outperformed the FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Index which gained 3.5% during the same period. Interest rates and economic growth in key Asian markets continued to be key drivers during the month.
6 S-REITs recorded double-digit total returns last month: Digital Core REIT (+18.1%), CapitaLand China Trust (+16.5%), Daiwa House Logistics Trust (+16.1%), OUE Commercial REIT (+12.3%), SPH REIT (+10.4%) and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (+10.1%).
Read full article: bit.ly/3B6SsUI
Closing
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