Market Update for 4 - 10 Apr 2023
Market forecast for 2nd Week of April
Investor's Must-Know
Wind of Change
IMF warns five-year global growth outlook weakest since 1990
Singapore plans new guidance for banks on vetting crypto clients
French President Emmanuel Macron and EU chief Von Der Leye, had formed a joint trip to visit China last week
Past Economic Events to note last week:
➡️Singapore's Retail sales grew 12.7% YoY in February [link]
➡️Singapore's Manufacturing PMI dipped 0.1 to 49.9 in March [link]
Future Events to note this Week:
➡️Wed, 12 Apr 23 USD : CPI yoy Mar : 6.0% to ?
➡️Thu, 13 Apr 23 SGD : GDP yoy Q1 : 2.1% to ?
Market Forecast:
After a restful long weekend of Easter, STI finally consolidated at 3286 level, after 2 weeks of run-up since since mid of March. In fact, many investors may chose to take money off the table at this level, as STI can take an U-turn anytime from now to cease its uptrend moment if it failed to break up at the previous high of 3310 level. But in the month of April, my forecast is still bullish till early May. Meanwhile, the low trading volume in the market can indicate a lack of interest in either buying or selling. Technically, it could be bullish if low volume occurs in a downtrend, and it could also be bearish if it's noted in an uptrend. As long as traders do not take the short positions, to hold "long" is still safer bet this month.
This week, the release of U.S's CPI (consumer price index) has taken the center stage in the market, as it will steer the Fed rate hike decision, as well as dictate the commodities prices. Last month, the Fed just raised the fed funds rate by 25bps to 4.75%-5% in March 2023, and the next FOMC will soon be held on 2-3 May. Most financial analysts are looking at 25 basis point for every increase in 2023 since the interest rate ceilings will soon to be hit.
Another news to take note on Bitcoin on Tuesday, as it rose sharply and clearing the $30,000 level for the first time since June 2022. Markets bet on a less hawkish Federal Reserve in the coming months, while sentiment also improved amid easing fears of a banking crisis. [link]
🌀SG Earning Announcement🌀
Watch out for the First Quarter Earning reporting season in Apr-May 2023...
FUTURE
🌀 Highlights of Economic Calendar: 10 - 14 Apr 23 🌀
| Mon 10 Apr 23 | Tue 11 Apr 23 | Wed 12 Apr 23 | Thu 13 Apr 23 | Fri 14 Apr 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Singapore | | | | GDP | |
United States | | | CPI | | Retail Sales |
See below for more important data to be announced:
Mon, 10 Apr 23 CNY : CPI yoy Mar : 1.0% to ?
CNY : PPI yoy Mar : -1.4% to ?
Tues, 11 Apr 23 USD : EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
USD : API Weekly Crude Oil Stock : -4.346M to ?
Wed, 12 Apr 23 USD : CPI yoy Mar : 6.0% to ?
USD : Core CPI yoy Mar : 5.5% to ?
USD : Crude Oil Inventories : -3.739M to ?
USD : Federal Budget Balance Mar -262.0B to ?
CNY : Exports, Imports and Trade Balance
Thu, 13 Apr 23 SGD : GDP yoy Q1 : 2.1% to ?
USD : Initial Jobless Claims : 228K to ?
USD : PPI mom Mar : -0.1% to ?
Fri, 14 Mar 23 USD : Retail Sales mom Mar : -0.4% to ?
USD : Export Price Index mom Mar : 0.2% to ?
USD : Import Price Index mom Mar : -0.1% to ?
USD : Industrial Production mom Mar : 0.3% to ?
PAST
🌀 Things to note of past Economic Calendar: 03 - 07 Apr 23 🌀
Sun, 2 Apr 23 SGD : URA Property Index (QoQ) : 0.40% to 3.20%
CNY : Caixin Manufacturing PMI : 51.6 to 50.0
Mon, 3 Apr 23 SGD : Manufacturing PMI Mar : 50.0 to 49.9
AUD : Commodity Prices yoy : 4.7% to -9.1%
USD : OPEC Meeting (Cut production)
USD : Manufacturing PMI Mar : 47.3 to 49.2
USD : ISM Manufacturing PMI Mar : 47.7 to 46.3
USD : ISM Manufacturing Prices Mar : 51.3 to 49.2
Tues, 4 Apr 23 AUD : RBA Interest Rate Decision Apr : 3.60% to 3.60%
USD : Factory Orders mom Feb : -2.1% to -0.7%
USD : JOLTs Job Openings Feb : 10.563M to 9.931M
USD : API Weekly Crude Oil Stock : -6.076M to -4.346M
Wed, 5 Apr 23 SGD : Retail Sales yoy Feb : -0.8% to 12.7%
SGD : Retail Sales mom Feb : -9.5% to 3.9%
USD : ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Mar : 261K to 145K
USD : Exports : 258.10B to 251.15B
USD : Imports : 326.70B to 321.70B
USD : Trade Balance feb : -68.30B to -70.50B
USD : S&P Global Composite PMI Mar : 50.1 to 52.3
USD : ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Mar : 55.1 to 51.2
USD : Crude Oil Inventories : -7.489M to -3.739M
HKD : Manufacturing PMI Mar 53.9 to 53.5
CNY : Caixin Manufacturing PMI 55.0 to 57.8
Thu, 6 Apr 23 SGD : Foreign Reserves USD (MoM) : 294.1B to 312.2B
USD : Initial Jobless Claims : 246K to 228K
USD : Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks : 3.401T to 3.381T
CNY : Caixin Services PMI : 55.0 to 57.8
Fri, 31 Mar 23 Easter Holidays
USD : Nonfarm Payrolls Mar : 326K to 236K
USD : Unemployment Rate Mar : 3.6% to 3.5%
CNY : FX Reserves USD Mar : 3.133T to 3.184T
📌
Other Focus (Highlights of Results / Corporate Actions):
Local news:
MLT issues about 121.2 mil new units in private placement to raise $200 mil to pare debt
Centurion disposes property in Korea for $21.4 mil
Sabana REIT closes 25 new and renewed leases totalling 336,650 sq ft in 1QFY2023
Sabana Industrial REIT obtains provisional permission for 1 Tuas Avenue 4 AEI
Fitch downgrades LMIRT's rating to 'CCC-'
SIA uses $249.9 mil out of $850 mil raised in convertible bonds due 2025
Singtel to pay $236 million to raise stake in enlarged Indonesia associate
Sats and Mitsui form strategic alliance to jointly explore harnessing respective strengths
CapitaLand Investment prices $425 mil fixed rate senior notes due 2030
Other News
Temasek to acquire 41% stake in India's Manipal Health Enterprises
Temasek's SeaTown plans to raise US$1.5 bil for credit fund
Hong Kong's Fung Group weighs retail unit IPO in Singapore; listing could value the business at US$500 mil
Nasdaq-listed AGBA acquires Singapore-based insurance broker Sony Financial Advisers
📌
SGX & Other Newsfeed
💡 SGX <Analyst Research>
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