(Update from 16 - 22 November and market forecast)
🌀
US
FOMC Meeting Minutes, Consumer Sentiment and many other important economic data will be announced this Wednesday (US times) before market goes for Thanksgiving break
*
Bitcoin falls to US16,000 level
*
18 - 19 Nov : 2022 APEC Ministerial Meeting, Thai
*
European Central Bank Meeting
🌀
Points to Note
Hyflux's former CEO, CFO and independent directors charged with offences under SFA and CA
Binance placed on alert list after complaints; all crypto exchanges can fail: MAS
🌀
My latest Market View published in Sunday Times for the month of Nov:
Here’s the link:
dated on 20 Nov
🌀
To Investors :
Investment tip takeaway 🦉 this week:
U.S. Thanksgiving Holiday, may end the week with no directions
This week, market had pull back quite a fair bit on Monday (as I'm getting worrisome over the sudden drop in U.S. Housing Start as well as their Existing Home Sales). but I think one key index, NODX, continued to slide as announced last week, and we can see the surges in 3 banks prices had been the driving force of STI last week, and on Monday, DBS and UOB were fallen into the top 30 losers list instead, causing STI closed -21.61 point at 3,250.62.
Therefore, I believed market will likely to continue in pulling back on Tuesday... But in the month of November, any pull back could give traders a short-term buy opportunities (as mentioned in my previous interview). Hence, I expect Wednesday onward, market may rebound as STI's the current critical support is on 3200 points, and it is very important to hold on this level for STI keep in its uptrend momentum and market is started to gear up for Q4 earning next year. Nonetheless, U.S. Thanksgiving holiday will be on coming Thursday and only half day for Friday this week, many economic data announcement have been pushed forward to Wednesday night. Therefore, the 2nd part of the week may become more volatile or even no direction with the absence of the U.S. market participation.
In Singapore, investors need to take note of important economic data announced later this week, which includes GDP, CPI and Industrial Production. Given last week on Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) was reported 5.6% drop in Oct, as weak demand on the electronic products, pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals... etc continues. (Click Here to know more about NODX) The recent drastic increase in job cut across the big Tech companies, and I'm cautious with the chip-making and IT related industries as fund managers are likely to start re-structure their portfolio after window dressing, and institutions may even reduce their exposure in certain industries like IT to protect their portfolio values from being affected in future if there's any further downgrading in 2023.
Last but not least, the bankrupted FTX saga had impacted bitcoin price to free fall from critical support of US 20,000 and broke through 16,000 level again this morning. Together with the U.S. Dollar started to turn weaker recently due the falling CPI, the Forex market could likely to impact the prices of the equities to further retreat as fund managers may need to quickly sell the on-hand USD dominated assets and convert back the money back to other bottom-low valued currencies for keeping a well balanced portfolio.
For China to tighten on COVID measure, it is not as worrisome as before if it didn't impose any further restriction on Hong Kong to follow suit. About 2 weeks ago, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority hosted the Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit and the chief executive John Lee announced that they will uplift the Covid-19's restrictions and head 'back to business'. However, the China's tightening may continue to limit the flow of people to cross border for spending, which in turn will impact the revenues of businesses that relying on retail sales like casino, food and beverages, education, financials and property in Hong Kong Market. But the impact in Singapore Market will not as influential as the mainstream of businesses is still with United States.
Q3 Earning Result Announcement :
GoTo reports narrower adjusted ebitda loss of IDR3.7 trillion in 3QFY2022 results
Alibaba posts surprise loss as China Covid curbs take a toll
CSE Global reports 22% higher revenue in 3QFY2022
Grab narrows loss by 65% to US$342 mil in 3QFY2022
Sea reports net loss of US$569.3 mil for 3QFY2022, down 0.3% y-o-y
Delfi reports 539% y-o-y surge in patmi for 3QFY2022
SG Earning Announcement
Watch out for the Final Year Earning reporting season in 2nd part of Jan 2023...
📍Economic Calendar: 21st - 25th Nov📍
Singapore
(Tue/Thu, November 22/24, 2022)
GDP Q3
(Wed, November 23, 2022)
CPI Oct
(Fri, November 25, 2022)
Industrial Production Oct
United States
(Tuesday, November 22, 2022)
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
(Wednesday, November 23, 2022)
Building Permits, Durable Goods Orders Oct, Initial Jobless Claims, Manufacturing PMI Nov, S&P Global Composite PMI Nov, Service PMI Nov, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales Oct, Crude Oil Inventories
FOMC Meeting Minutes
(Thursday, November 24, 2022)
Thanksgiving Day (Holiday)
(Friday, November 25, 2022)
Thanksgiving Day (Holiday) - close at 13:00 US times
🕳️
Next 2022 FOMC Meetings:
December. 14-15
China / Hong Kong
(Monday, November 21, 2022))
HK, CPI (YoY) Oct
(Saturday, November 26, 2022))
CNY, Chinese Industrial Profit
🌀
Last Week Economic Data Review :
Singapore
Non-Oil Exports (YoY) Oct (3.10% ➡️ -5.60%)
Trade Balance (5.783B ➡️ 4.071B)
United States
PPI (MoM) Oct (0.2% ➡️ 0.2%)
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov) (-9.10 ➡️ 4.50)
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (5.618M ➡️ -5.835M)
Retail Sales (MoM) Oct (0.0% ➡️1.3%)
Export Price Index (MoM) Oct (-1.5% ➡️-0.3%)
Import Price Index (MoM) Oct (-1.1% ➡️-0.2%)
Industrial Production (MoM) Oct (0.1% ➡️-0.1%)
Business Inventories (MoM) Sep (0.9% ➡️0.4%)
Crude Oil Inventories (3.925M ➡️-5.400M)
Building Permits (MoM) Oct (1.4% ➡️ -2.4%)
Housing Starts (MoM) Oct (-1.3% ➡️ -4.2%)
Initial Jobless Claims (226K ➡️222K)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (219K ➡️ 221K)
Existing Home Sales (MoM) Oct (-1.5% ➡️ -5.9%)
China / Hong Kong
China, Industrial Production (YoY) Oct
China, Retail Sales (YoY) Oct
China, Unemployment Rate
“If you don’t like something, change it. If you can’t change it, change your attitude.” — Maya Angelou
📌
Other Focus (Highlights of Results / Corporate Actions):
Other extracted news:
TSMC founder Chang says US welcomes chipmaker's Arizona plant plan
DBS re-initiates 'buy' on ThaiBev, calling it one of the 'most valuable' large-cap Asean F&B counters
Singapore wants to sell the world on cell-cultured seafood
Analysts issue downgrades on Nanofilm as outlook worsens
📌
SGX & Other Newsfeed
💡 SGX <Analyst Research>
📈 Recent Manufacturing Index Gains powered by Tech & Healthcare Sectors The indicative iEdge SG Advanced Manufacturing Index has generated a 7% gain over the first 9-sessions of November, with S$84M of net institutional inflows. The recent momentum has brought the 3-year total return of the Manufacturing Index to 25%, which is comparable to the FTSE Developed Index total return, while outpacing the 12% and 2% respective total returns for the STI and the FTSE Asia Pacific Index. Constituents of the Manufacturing Index also contributed 17% of Singapore's average daily stock market turnover in the 2022 YTD. 5 of the 20 most traded stocks of the Manufacturing Index that have seen the strongest gains in early November included Frencken, Riverstone, UMS, Top Glove, YZJ Shipbldg and AEM. The 5 averaged 19% MTD returns.
Read more at: bit.ly/3O6xKJG
📈 [REIT Watch on The Business Times - Hospitality S-REITs ride on pent-up travel demand and the return of events in 3Q22]
International tourist arrivals to Singapore rose for a ninth straight month in October and this is expected to continue to grow at a gradual pace in the coming months.
Hospitality trusts with Singapore assets - namely CapitaLand Ascott Trust, CDL Hospitality Trusts, Far East Hospitality Trust and Frasers Hospitality Trust - observed significant improvements in occupancy and RevPAR in the last quarter, driven by the return of large-scale events and the MICE industry, alongside pent-up demand for overseas travels.
Read more at: bit.ly/3AANJdt
Closing
With the rising interest rate, I believed investors are getting more more risk-averse with the current economic situation, would seriously consider to park their money in fixed deposit with the bank to earn higher interest. And now, you may consider to earn a higher interest return with the idle cash that standby inside your trading account while awaiting for trading opportunities... Try our Phillip Money Market Fund SGD : 2.3439% p.a.
USD : 2.4792% p.a.
Rates updated as of 21 Nov 2022
CASH PLUS Promotion:
Low-commission trading account is available... and check out for Promotion Details
(Waived for US and HK Foreign Custody fee until 31 December 2022.)
Important Disclaimer
A. Reminders: 1. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd ("PSPL") will generally provide you "execution only" services - see Guide and Cautionary Notes for Trading Accounts on www.poems.com.sg. You are therefore personally responsible to make your own decisions on the suitability of every securities transaction you do through PSPL. One exception is if you specifically apply and pay for advice from PSPL. The other is referred to in reminder 2. 2. Execution-Related Advice ("ERA") on listed Excluded Investment Products may be given to you, but only subject to strict conditions. These include (a) you accepting personal responsibility to ensure any such advice is suitable before you act on it, and (b) you ensuring that you both receive and understand the rationale for every ERA given to you. 3. Materials (including market and analyst reports) are provided to you as information on an execution only basis for you to make your own suitability decisions. Materials which are not ERA are provided strictly as you asked. These reminders apply to the contents of this e-mail as well as any and all accompanying materials sent under its cover. B. General Disclaimer: The information/materials provided (whether as attachments to this e-mail or in its body), where they are not ERA on listed Excluded Investment Products in compliance with the second reminder above, are provided for general information/circulation only and not intended and therefore should not be taken as any offer or solicitation to do any investment or trade. No assessment has been made by PSPL as to the suitability for you of any materials in or under this e-mail. As always, the decision to trade and/or invest remains solely with you. Information/materials in or under this e-mail are provided as is without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. Such information/materials provided have been procured from sources which are believed to be reliable and accurate (but whose reliability and accuracy cannot be and are not warranted); and may have been acted on by PSPL or members of the PhillipCapital group of entities before being made available to you. All investments are subject to investment risks. Ideally you should and you may wish to seek advice from an independent financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase or invest in the investment product(s) mentioned either in this e-mail or its attachment(s). If you choose not to do so, you are then choosing to make your own decision on whether any of the said investment product(s) are suitable for you. Neither PSPL nor any fellow member of the PhillipCapital group of entities shall, in any event, be liable to you for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on any information in and/or materials attached to this email. C. General Confidentiality Note: This e-mail and its attachment(s) are intended only for the use of the recipient(s) named above. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately and delete all copies of it.
Confidentiality Note
This e-mail and its attachment(s) are intended only for the use of the recipient(s) named above. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately and delete all copies of it.
Comments