Market Update for 7 - 13 Mar 2023
Market forecast for 3nd Week of Mar
Past Economic Events to note last week:
➡️Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Silvergate Capital collapsed [link]
➡️Signature Bank closed by New York regulators in SVB's wake
➡️HSBC to acquire SVB’s UK business for GBP1
➡️No hikes in March, but expect 25 bps in May, June and July says Goldman Sachs
Other Headlines ➡️Temasek says it doesn’t have any direct exposure to SVB: Bloomberg
➡️Roku among most-exposed firms with assets caught in SVB failure
➡️Credit Suisse delay reporting
➡️7/8 Mar: Fed Chair Powell Testified : No decision made on faster tightening
➡️United States : The President’s Budget for Fiscal Year 2024 1[link]
➡️China : Xi Jinping was elected again, on his third term as China's president
➡️Singapore keen to facilitate US-China dialogue amid tensions [link]
Future Events to note next Week:
➡️14 Mar; US's OPEC Monthly Report; CPI yoy mom Feb
➡️14 Mar; China's Industrial Production
➡️15 Mar; US's PPI; Retail Sales
➡️16 Mar; US's Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; Building Permits; Import Price Index
➡️16 Mar; SGD's Non-Oil Exports yoy mom Feb
➡️17 Mar; US's Industrial Production yoy mom Feb; Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Week after Next*** :
➡️Future FOMC Meetings in 2023
March. 21-22* ; May. 2-3 ; June. 13-14* ; July. 25-26 ; September. 19-20*
➡️22 Mar; US's Existing Home Sales
➡️23 Mar; SGD's CPI, US's Interest Rate Projection, US's New Home Sales
➡️24 Mar; Core Durable Goods Orders
Market Forecast:
STI had been heading lower last week and breaking various supports along 3237pts level and filled the gap (that took placed in early Nov last year) eventually on this week Monday. To summarize, STI had retraced 61% from the recent record high of 3407 points within 2 months and currently extending its losses from the spillover of the Silicon Valley Bank saga despite the market had been excessively oversold.
Strategies: Go short-term, and yet to bottom-fish
I'm more into believing the technical rebounded likely to be happened this week till Thursday, as the SG's Feb NODX is going to be announced on that day. And for U.S. market, all eyes are on the CPI data reporting this Tuesday as this inflation thermometer somehow dictates whether the Fed really need to raise the rate aggressively again next week even the collapse of SVB is likely to slow things down.
With the collapses of the 3 U.S. banks within a week, most of the global financial surveillance watchdogs are putting their focuses back on the economic data. Blaming on Fed in pushing the interest rate too hard to curb inflation, the adversities start to kick into the U.S. financial system. Therefore, investors must aware of any heavy market tumble would likely to result in a "W" shape of double bottom trendline to form technically before the completion of one full correction.
Selected Topics for Readers
My latest Market View published in ZaoBao in the month of March 2023:
Interviewed on Morning Summary Update @ ZaoBao dated on 13 Mar 23:
Interviewed for Agricultural Stocks dated on 09 Mar 23:
🌀SG Earning Announcement🌀
Watch out for the First Quarter Earning reporting season in Apr-May 2023...
FUTURE
🌀 Highlights of Economic Calendar: 13 - 17 Mar 23 🌀
| Mon 13 Mar 23 | Tue 14 Mar 23 | Wed 15 Mar 23 | Thu 16 Mar 23 | Fri 17 Mar 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Singapore | Unemployment Rate | | | Non-Oil Exports | |
United States | | CPI | PPI | Initial Jobless Claims * and more | Industrial Production |
China | | Industrial Production | | | |
Hong Kong | | | | Unemployment Rate | |
Australia | | | Employment Change | | |
Britain | | Unemployment Rate | | | |
Sun, 12 Mar 23 : Fed Statement
See below for more important data to be announced:
Mon, 13 Mar 23 SGD : Unemployment Rate : 2.0% to ?
USD : CB Employment Trends Index : 118.74 to ?
AUD : Westpac Consumer Sentiment Mar : -6.9% ?
Tues, 14 Mar 23 SGD : Unemployment Rate 4Q : 2.0% to ?
USD : OPEC Monthly Report
USD : Core CPI yoy Feb : 5.6% to ? USD : CPI yoy Feb : 6.4% to ?
USD : API Weekly Crude Oil Stock : -3.835M to ?
GBP : Unemployment Rate Jan : 3.7% to ?
CNY : Industrial Production yoy Feb : 1.3% to ? CNY : Chinese Unemployment Rate Feb : 5.5% to ?
CNY : Retail Sales yoy Feb : -1.8% to ?
Wed, 15 Mar 23 USD : Core PPI mom Feb : 0.5% to ?
USD : PPI mom Feb : 0.7% to ?
USD : Core Retail Sales mom Feb : 2.3% to ?
USD : NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Mar : -5.80 to ?
USD : Retail Sales mom Feb : 3.0% to ?
USD : Crude Oil Inventories : -1.694M to ?
AUD : Employment Change Feb : -11.5K to ?
CNY : House Prices yoy Feb : -1.5% to ?
Thu, 16 Mar 23 SGD : Non-Oil Exports mom Feb : 0.90% to ?
SGD : Non-Oil Exports yoy Feb : -25.00% to ?
SGD : Trade Balance : 6.303B to ?
HKD : Unemployment Rate (Feb) 3.4% to ?
USD : Initial Jobless Claims : 211K to ?
USD : Housing Starts mom Feb : -4.5% to ?
USD : Building Permits mom Feb : 1.339M to ?
USD : Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index : -24.3M to ?
USD : Import Price Index mom Feb : -0.2% to ?
USD : Export Price Index mom Feb : 0.8% to ?
Fri, 17 Mar 23 USD : Industrial Production mom Feb : 0% to ?
USD : Manufacturing Production mom Feb : 1% to ?
EUR : CPI yoy Feb : 8.5% to ?
PAST
🌀 Things to note of past Economic Calendar: 6 - 11 Mar 23 🌀
Mon, 06 Mar 23 USD : Factory Orders mom Jan : 1.7% to -1.6%
GBP : Construction PMI Feb : 48.4 to 54.6
CNY : Trade Balance USD Feb: 78.01B to 116.88B
AUD : RBA Interest Rate Decision : 3.35% to 3.6%
Tues, 07 Mar 23 SGD : Foreign Reserves USD mom : 291.7B to 294.1B USD : Fed Chair Powell Testifies [link]
USD : EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
USD : API Weekly Crude Oil Stock : 6.203M to -3.835M
CNY : Imports (YoY) Feb : -7.5% to -10.2%
CNY : Exports (YoY) Feb : -9.9% to -6.8%
Wed, 08 Mar 23 USD : ADP Nonfarm Employment Change : 119K to 242K
USD : Exports : 249.00B to 257.50B
USD : Imports : 316.20B to 325.80B
USD : Fed Chair Powell Testifies [Testimony]
USD : JOLTs Job Openings Jan : 11.234M to 10.824M
USD : Crude Oil Inventories : 1.165M to -1.694M
CNY : CPI mom Feb : 0.8% to -0.5%
CNY : CPI yoy Feb : 2.1% to 1.0%
CNY : PPI yoy Feb : -0.8% to -1.4%
Thu, 09 Mar 23 USD : Initial Jobless Claims : 190K to 211K
Fri, 10 Mar 23 GBP : GDP mom Jan : -0.5% to 0.3%
USD : Nonfarm Payrolls Feb : 504K to 311K
USD : Unemployment Rate Feb : 3.4% to 3.6%
USD : Federal Budget Balance Feb -39.0B to -262.0B
CNY : New Loans Feb : 4900.0B to 1810.0B
📌
Other Focus (Highlights of Results / Corporate Actions):
Local news:
Sembcorp receives award for first greenfield renewables project in Oman
Sembcorp prices $350 mil worth of 4.6% notes due 2030
ThaiBev to delist Oishi Group from Thai stock exchange
Yangzijiang Financial signs MOU with ADDX to distribute its capital markets products
GK Goh directors increase stake through GKG Investment Holdings
YKGI enters into non-binding MOU with Pin Si Kitchen
CDL completes acquisition of landmark St Katharine Docks in central London for $636 mil
Volare's partial offer for Sabana REIT turns unconditional
Fitch downgrades LMIRT’s rating to 'CCC'
UOB Sydney prices A$1.5 bil worth of senior unsecured notes due 2026
Yangzijiang Financial Holding resumes share buyback after five-month break
Cosco forms joint venture with related entity to invest in logistics infrastructure assets
Earning Results:
Sea cuts more jobs at Shopee days after posting surprise profit
Del Monte reports 3QFY2023 earnings of US$9.8 mil, 62.0% lower y-o-y
Other News
FWD Group has refiled to list with the HKEx
Singapore’s banking system has 'insignificant exposures' to SVB and Signature Bank
Grab's CFO reduces stake through US$1.1 mil share sale
📌
SGX & Other Newsfeed
💡 SGX <Analyst Research>
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