Market Update for 7 - 13 Feb 2023
Market forecast from 14 - 20 Feb 2023
Past Events to note last Week:
➡️MOF estimates government spending to exceed 20% of Singapore's GDP by FY2030 due mainly to healthcare expenditures [link]
➡️Temasek Holdings launches dual tranche offering for four-year and 10-year EUR Temasek bonds [link]
Other Events:
➡️7 Feb Fed Chair Powell speech [link]
➡️Others
Future Events to note next Week:
➡️US CPI @ 14 Feb 23, Tue
➡️SGD Non-Oil Exports Jan @ 16 Feb 23, Thu
➡️Final Year (FY22) Earning announcement for 3 local banks :
DBS : 13th (AM) Feb 2023 (one day before US CPI announcement)
UOB : 23rd (AM) Feb 2023
OCBC : 24th (AM) Feb 2023
➡️US Retail Sales, Industrial Production MoM @ 15 Feb 23, Wed
➡️US Philadelphia Fed Mnftg, PPI @ 16 Feb 23, Thu
Week after Next:
➡️US Holiday @ 20 Feb 23, Mon
➡️Singapore CPI @ 23 Feb 23, Thu
➡️Singapore Industrial Production @ 24 Feb 23, Fri
➡️US Core PCE Price Index, New Home Sales @ 24 Feb 23, Fri
Market Forecast:
How's the U.S. political directions could affect the global supply chain:
After the US president Biden made his union speech last Wednesday, there was one catchy phase that will probably bring distress to other countries, which is "Made in America". With the rising danger of losing competitive edges, U.S. being the largest consumer economy finally concedes to transform and invest more into their own local productions as to avoid sinking into recession. However, the global supply chain that had been making their livelihood on the exportation to U.S. for decades, will be inevitably hit by this new paradigm shift. Especially countries that had been relying heavily in producing Non-Oil Export Products will need to improvise the existing resources to create new revenues for survival.
What's the current political situations and performance of STI last week:
In the month of February, political turmoil broke out in various countries, continue to hinder the global economic recoveries. Beside the recent afresh face-off between US and China, was reignited with an unknown balloon being shot down as it flew across the U.S. aerial space, the rivalries among countries also get heated up with China announced the full reopening of its borders with the territories of Hong Kong and Macau after nearly three years of closure. Add to the dismay of many investors, STI gave up gains and retreated from the recent high and back to 3360.69 point level for the closure of last week. And 3360 level is exactly the next critical support level since STI gapped-up on 25 Jan.
Market forecast this week:
Technically, STI at 3360 point level should not break in Feb, given the earning season is still on-going. However, the 4Q record-high earnings from DBS [link] didn't seem to boost the market confidence on its result announcement day, and heavy profit taking was sighted in contrary. And together with lower-than-expected 4Q GDP (year to year) that came in on the same day, STI continue its downtrend movement
As mentioned, I had initiated long positions (buy) from last week Thursday on O&G and agriculture related positions. And I will continue to hold my long positions on these 2 sectors for mid-terms for now. And Golden-Agri is rebounding so far... but others like First Resources may attempt but only with limited exposure.
As mentioned, I will not buy in REIT/ properties, Chip-maker as well as transportation sector, for the first half of 2023.
Market view:
[link] - Pressure on China’s factories grows as U.S. demand falls
[link] : Benefits of Reshoring: How “Made in America” Impacts Supply Chains
My latest Market View published in ZaoBao in the month of February 2023:
Afternoon Market Update dated on 09 Feb 23:
Afternoon Market Update on 13 Feb 23:
🌀SG Earning Announcement🌀
Watch out for the Final Year Earning reporting season in Feb 2023...
FUTURE
🌀 Highlights of Economic Calendar: 13 - 18 Feb 23 🌀
Sun, 12 Feb 23 SGD : GDP yoy Q4 : 4.0% to 2.1% [MTI]
SGD : GDP qoq Q4 : 0.8% to 0.3%
Mon, 13 Feb 23 USD : Consumer Inflation Expectations : 5.0% to ?
JPY : GDP qoq Q4 : -0.2% to ?
Tues, 14 Feb 23 USD : Core CPI yoy Jan : 5.7% to ? USD : CPI yoy Jan : 6.5% to ?
USD : API Weekly Crude Oil Stock : -2.184M to ?
Wed, 15 Feb 23 GBP : CPI yoy Jan : 10.5% to ?
USD : Core Retail Sales mom Jan : -1.1% to ?
USD : NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Feb : -32.9 to ?
USD : Industrial Production yoy Jan : 1.65% to ?
USD : Crude Oil Inventories : 2.423M to ?
AUD : Employment Change Jan : -14.6K to ?
Thu, 16 Feb 23 USD : Building Permits Jan : 1.337M to ?
USD : Housing Starts mom Jan : -1.4% to ?
USD : Initial Jobless Claims : 196K to ?
USD : Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Feb : -8.9 to ?
USD : PPI mom Jan : -0.5% to ?
SGD : Non-Oil Exports yoy Jan : -20.6% to ?
Fri, 17 Feb 23 GBP : Core Retail Sales yoy Jan : -6.1% to ?
USD : Export Price Index mom : -2.6% to ?
USD : Import Price Index mom : 0.4% to ?
PAST
🌀 Things to note of past Economic Calendar: 6 - 11 Feb 23 🌀
Mon, 5 Feb 23 AUD : Retail Sales MoM : 1.7% to -3.9%
Mon, 6 Feb 23 AUD : RBA Interest Rate Decision Feb : 3.1% to 3.35%
USD : CB Employment Trends Index Jan : 117.06 to 118.74
Tues, 7 Feb 23 SGD : Foreign Reserves USD : 289.5B to 291.7B HKD : Foreign Reserves USD : 424.0B to 436.90B
CNY : FX Reserves USD : 3.128T to 3.184T
USD : Exports : 252.4B to 250.20B
USD : Imports : 313.4B to 317.60B
USD : Trade Balance Dec : -61.5B to -67.4B
USD : API Weekly Crude Oil Stock : 6.330M to -2.184M
Fed Chair Powell Speaks [link]
Wed, 8 Feb 23 USD : MBA Mortgage Applications : -9.0% to 7.4%
USD : Crude Oil Inventories : 4.140M to 2.423M
Thu, 9 Feb 23 USD : Initial Jobless Claims : 183K to 196K
CNY : CPI Jan yoy : 1.8% to 2.1%
CNY : PPI Jan yoy : -0.7% to -0.8%
Fri, 10 Feb 23 GBP : GDP Q4 yoy : 1.9% to 0.4%
USD : Michigan Consumer Sentiment : 64.9 to 66.4
USD : Federal Budget Balance Jan -85.0B to -39.0B
CNY : New Loans Jan : 14000.0B to 4900.0B
📌
Other Focus (Highlights of Results / Corporate Actions):
Other extracted news:
JPMorgan's Dimon says Fed may hike above 5%, Reuters reports
Link REIT announces 1-for-5 rights to raise HK18.8 billion
Yahoo will eliminate 1,000 jobs in latest tech workforce cuts
Hesai raises US$190 mil in biggest Chinese US IPO since Didi
Dell to cut about 6,650 jobs, battered by plunging PC sales
Google releases ChatGPT rival AI 'Bard' to early testers
Local News
Rex subsidiary partakes in North Sea oil discovery
SGX RegCo directs Lorenzo International Limited to be delisted
Deliveroo plans to cut 9% of staff to focus on profit
iX Biopharma completes first phase of its study for dementia-related agitation drug
UOL-Singland JV wins Meyer Park en bloc deal for $392.18 million
Moody's assigns Baa1 foreign currency issuer rating to MPACT
Binance to suspend US dollar transfers using bank accounts
Oiltek International wins new contract worth RM19.4 million from Indonesia
Boustead Singapore makes 90 cent per share privatisation offer for Boustead Projects
Oxley sells nearly 60% of Jewel by Oxley KLCC for $93 mil in pre-sales
Oxley issues exchange offer for outstanding notes Series 003 notes due 2023
JCube site to be redeveloped into 40-storey residential development
Ley Choon wins $153 mil worth of new contracts
Earning Results
RE&S earnings grew 61.7% y-o-y to $5.55 mil in 1HFY2023 on removal of social distancing restrictions
Chuan Hup Holdings reports earnings of US$1.5 mil for the 1HFY2023, slightly over eight times higher y-o-y
ThaiBev reports 7.7% y-o-y decline in 1QFY2023 ebitda of $534.0 mil
Thomson Medical Group reports 82.6% y-o-y surge in 1HFY2023 earnings of $22.8 mil
Yoma Strategic reports 76% y-o-y growth in group revenue for 1QFY2023
Japan Foods reports 94.5% y-o-y surge in 9MFY2023 net profit of $3.2 mil
Asia Enterprises doubles revenue in FY2022; earnings impacted by increase in tax expenses
Pan-United reports 16% lower earnings y-o-y in 2HFY2022 at $9.88 mil
Civmec posts earnings of A$28.2 mil in 1HFY2023, up 25% y-o-y on higher revenues and improved gross margins
F J Benjamin reverses into $1.7 mil net profit in 1HFY2023 as consumer demand returns
Prime REIT’s 2HFY2022 DPU falls 12.5% y-o-y within challenging sector, messaging is cautiously optimistic
Wing Tai reports earnings of $63.3 million for 1HFY2023, up 18% y-o-y on higher JV companies contributions
Zoom Video to cut 1,300 jobs, or 15% of global workforce
SGX Group posts 7% higher adjusted net profit for 1HFY2023, dividend unchanged
Manulife US REIT reports 18.6% lower 2HFY2022 DPU of 2.14 US cents after capital retention
Keppel Corp divests Willowville for US$5.5 mil to Oasis Asia Real Estate Investment
BRC Asia reports $11.7 mil in profit after tax for 1QFY2023
Chip Eng Seng says it expects to report a net loss for 2HFY2022 in profit guidance
Prime US REIT reports 2HFY2022 DPU of 3.03 US cents, down 12.2% y-o-y
Zhongxin Fruit posts earnings of RMB1.7 million in 1HFY2023, 95.1% decline y-o-y on operational challenges
Hutchison Port Holdings reports 37.1% lower earnings of HK$1.10 bil for FY2022, DPU of 14.50 HK cents
StarHub's 2HFY2022 earnings drop 98.4% y-o-y on higher expenses from impairment losses
Lendlease Global Commercial REIT announces DPU of 2.45 cents for 1HFY2023
CapitaLand India Trust reports 2HFY2022 DPU of 3.91 cents, 9% higher y-o-y
DBS posts record net profit of $8.19 bil for FY2022, declares dividend of 42 cents and special dividend of 50 cents
📌
SGX & Other Newsfeed
💡 SGX <Analyst Research>
CASH PLUS Promotion:
Low-commission trading account is available... and check out for Promotion Details
(Waived for US and HK Foreign Custody fee until 31 December 2022.)
Important Disclaimer
A. Reminders: 1. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd ("PSPL") will generally provide you "execution only" services - see Guide and Cautionary Notes for Trading Accounts on www.poems.com.sg. You are therefore personally responsible to make your own decisions on the suitability of every securities transaction you do through PSPL. One exception is if you specifically apply and pay for advice from PSPL. The other is referred to in reminder 2. 2. Execution-Related Advice ("ERA") on listed Excluded Investment Products may be given to you, but only subject to strict conditions. These include (a) you accepting personal responsibility to ensure any such advice is suitable before you act on it, and (b) you ensuring that you both receive and understand the rationale for every ERA given to you. 3. Materials (including market and analyst reports) are provided to you as information on an execution only basis for you to make your own suitability decisions. Materials which are not ERA are provided strictly as you asked. These reminders apply to the contents of this e-mail as well as any and all accompanying materials sent under its cover. B. General Disclaimer: The information/materials provided (whether as attachments to this e-mail or in its body), where they are not ERA on listed Excluded Investment Products in compliance with the second reminder above, are provided for general information/circulation only and not intended and therefore should not be taken as any offer or solicitation to do any investment or trade. No assessment has been made by PSPL as to the suitability for you of any materials in or under this e-mail. As always, the decision to trade and/or invest remains solely with you. Information/materials in or under this e-mail are provided as is without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. Such information/materials provided have been procured from sources which are believed to be reliable and accurate (but whose reliability and accuracy cannot be and are not warranted); and may have been acted on by PSPL or members of the PhillipCapital group of entities before being made available to you. All investments are subject to investment risks. Ideally you should and you may wish to seek advice from an independent financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase or invest in the investment product(s) mentioned either in this e-mail or its attachment(s). If you choose not to do so, you are then choosing to make your own decision on whether any of the said investment product(s) are suitable for you. Neither PSPL nor any fellow member of the PhillipCapital group of entities shall, in any event, be liable to you for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on any information in and/or materials attached to this email. C. General Confidentiality Note: This e-mail and its attachment(s) are intended only for the use of the recipient(s) named above. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately and delete all copies of it.
Confidentiality Note
This e-mail and its attachment(s) are intended only for the use of the recipient(s) named above. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately and delete all copies of it.
Commentaires