(Update from 9 - 15 November and market forecast)
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US
US Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% last month, less than expected may ease inflation
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Cryptocurrencies
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Points to Note
Last Friday, Dow soars 1,200 points after government report shows U.S. inflation is edging down and Hang Seng Index (HSI) follow suit.
SGX securities turnover down 10% m-o-m in October, derivatives reach new highs
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My latest Market View published in ZaoBao for the month of Nov:
MARKET SUMMARY dated on 14 Nov
My View published on 8 Nov
For ZaoBao Subscriber, Click HERE
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To Investors :
Investment tip takeaway 🦉 this week:
Any pull back in the 2nd part of the week... buy
Given with the lower than expected CPI reported last Friday, the market finally caught its breath and surge 1000 over points with the hope of slower rate hike next month as inflation eased. In addition, numerous counters also reported surprisingly good 3Q earnings last week and had supported the STI to continue its uptrend movement.
As the earning reporting season coming to the end soon, market will refocus back to economic data, The US Retail Sales, Housing Starts as well as Jobless Claims this week will determine whether the lower CPI had boosted the consumer spending, and this is matter to the fund managers in measuring how much the economies had really been recovered.
And investors need to take note that many counters had been rebounded and prices back to pre-COVID level. If the above mentioned data can't meet the market expectations, and may create another wave of sell down. But I believe it will not been enormous, since window dressing in this year may ever be more important than any other years to keep a good track record of funds' performance for shareholders to stay on. But there's one long-awaited event than will start next week may snare the attentions of all people, which is FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022. And investors can expect a quieter stock market by then.
As STI had been standing firm after break up at 3200 points, investors can take note of this coming Wednesday for Non-Oil Exports because the electronic sector had been reporting lower demand for the past 2 months and it is worrisome if the shrieking continue. And investor can take not of this.
Summary in Chinese
上周美国通涨回落，可能放缓加息步伐的利好消息，带动了星期五的股市全线大涨，加上个别蓝筹股在第三季的业绩公佈表现令人满意，也托高了海指的涨势。
那接下来这周的业绩报告逐渐接近尾声，焦点将会放回在经济数据上。将在星期三晩上公布的美国零售销售指数，会是股市是否能延续上升趋势的关键之一….毕竟通涨的回落能否有效刺激消费意欲，是市场关注。
毕竟很多股票已经回弹了不少，如果稍有不理想的数据公佈，都会引起投资者先拋售，再留在场外观察。但对我来说，十一月或十二月分，可能会有橱窗粉色的效应，微调的时候都可以是投资者考虑买入的机会。
总括来说，刚出炉的美国消费者物价指数虽然今人喜出望外，但未必能在短期内反应在其他的经济数据上，乘接上升的势头… 而星期五的失业救济金指数也会是焦点之一，所以这周有可能会出现先涨后跌的格局。
还有世界杯将在11月中旬正式开罗，股市也可能因球赛的举行而变成比较淡静
Singapore
星期三的非石油出口数据，将会是本地市场关注的焦点，而连续两个月下滑的电子类产品出口，能否逆转跌势上扬，将会直接影响新加坡的经济。
市场预测暂时是从-4% ，稍微回暖到-2%.. 但就算达标，也未必能反映在海指上，毕竟STI已经强烈反弹去九月以来的新高。反而我是担心，美国的表现会继续影响海指的表现。
在海指技术面来看，在星期五强力回弹50多点，已隔夜高开，成功挑战3200点的阻力，从新站在新的支持点3200上，相信就算有回调，也将会在3200点上，上下排徊。
Q3 Earning Result Announcement :
Golden Agri-Resources posts record ebitda of US$1.34 bil for 9M2022, up 62% y-o-y
ComfortDelGro reports 32.9% higher patmi in 3QFY2022
First Resources posts 206% increase in 9MFY2022 underlying net profit to US$235.8 mil
Sarine declares 12% y-o-y growth in 3QFY2022 profits, special interim dividend of 0.5 US cent declared
Q&M posts 62% drop in 3QFY2022 earnings to $3.6 mil
KSH 1HFY2023 earnings up 2.5% y-o-y, revenue up 24.5%
Vividthree reduces 1HFY2023 loss to $1.34 million
Yoma reports a loss of US$13.5 million for second half ended Sept 30
Metro Holdings reports fall in profits for 1HFY23 due to lockdowns, lower JV profits and rental rebates in China
Boustead Projects reports 30% y-o-y earnings jump for 1HFY2023
Fu Yu Corp reports lower revenue for 3QFY22, but net profit increases by 42.5%
UMS reports record revenue and profits for 9MFY22, declares third dividend of 1 cent per share
Food Empire posts record 9MFY2022 revenue and net profit
Genting Singapore 3QFY2022 earnings and revenue double
Hyphens Pharma surge 11% as 3QFY2022 earnings see 270.8% jump
Geo Energy Resources's 3QFY2022 earnings down 21% y-o-y, declares interim dividend
F&N posts 9.5% drop in FY2022 earnings to $176.9 mil
Singtel's 1HFY2023 earnings up 23% y-o-y, to pay interim and special dividend of 9.6 cents
Sats reports 1HFY2023 loss of $32.5 million, proposed rights issue to be capped at $800 million
Japan Foods is back in the black in 1HFY2023 with earnings of $2.3 mil
Grand Venture Technology reports lower earnings despite higher revenue on acquisitions-related costs
AEM reports 3QFY2022 earnings of $32.2 million, up 38.3%
Venture Corp reports 3QFY2022 earnings of $97.4 million, up 26.4% y-o-y
Adjusting for listing costs, iWow posts 14% higher net profit for 1HFY2023
REITs
Sasseur REIT posts 0.4% increase in 3QFY2022 DPU to 1.838 cents
United Hampshire US REIT posts 8.1% increase in 3QFY2022 distributable income to US$8.3 million
FLCT reports 2HFY2022 DPU of 3.77 cents, down 2.8%
LREIT maintains portfolio resiliency in 1QFY2023
ARA US Hospitality Trust outperforms in 9MFY2022 amid travel recovery
SG Earning Announcement Dates
Last Update : 3rd Nov 2022
📍Economic Calendar: 14th - 19th Nov📍
14 - 16Nov: G20 Leaders' Summit
6 - 18 Nov: UN Climate Change Conference
Singapore
(Wed, November 16, 2022)
Non-Oil Exports (YoY) Oct
United States
(Monday, November 14, 2022)
OPEC Monthly Report
(Tuesday, November 15, 2022)
PPI (MoM) Oct, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Nov, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
(Wednesday, November 16, 2022)
Retail Sales (MoM) Oct
Export Price Index, Import Price Index, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, Crude Oil Inventories
(Thursday, November 17, 2022)
Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
(Friday, November 18, 2022)
Existing Home Sales
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Next 2022 FOMC Meetings:
December. 14-15
China / Hong Kong
(Monday, November 14, 2022))
China, Industrial Production (YoY) Oct
China, Retail Sales (YoY) Oct
China, Unemployment Rate
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Last Week Economic Data Review :
Singapore
Foreign Reserves USD (MoM) Oct (286.1B ➡️ 282.3B)
United States
CB Employment Trends Index Oct (120.73 ➡️ 119.57)
Crude Oil Inventories (-3.115M ➡️ 3.925M)
CPI (YoY) Oct (8.2% ➡️ 7.7%)
Initial Jobless Claims (218K ➡️ 225K)
Federal Budget Balance Oct (-430.0B ➡️ -88.0B)
China / Hong Kong
China, Exports (YoY) Oct (5.7% ➡️ -0.3%)
China, Imports (YoY) Oct (0.3% ➡️ -0.7%)
China, Trade Balance (84.74B ➡️ 85.15B)
China, CPI (YoY) Oct (2.8% ➡️ 2.1%)
China, PPI (YoY) Oct (0.9% ➡️ -1.3%)
HK, GDP (YoY) Q3 (-1.3% ➡️ -4.5%)
“Change before you have to.” — Jack Welch
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Other Focus (Highlights of Results / Corporate Actions):
Other extracted news:
Sembcorp Marine signs revised agreements on proposed combination with Keppel O&M; posts improvement in 3QFY2022 update
FTX.com does not operate in Singapore, MAS clarifies
UOBAM Ping An ChiNext ETF marks debut listing on SGX, Shenzhen Stock Exchange collaboration
NoonTalk Media offering 22 mil shares, targets to list on Nov 22 at 22 cents per share
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SGX & Other Newsfeed
💡 SGX <Analyst Research>
📈 Recent Manufacturing Index Gains powered by Tech & Healthcare Sectors
The indicative iEdge SG Advanced Manufacturing Index has generated a 7% gain over the first 9-sessions of November, with S$84M of net institutional inflows. The recent momentum has brought the 3-year total return of the Manufacturing Index to 25%, which is comparable to the FTSE Developed Index total return, while outpacing the 12% and 2% respective total returns for the STI and the FTSE Asia Pacific Index. Constituents of the Manufacturing Index also contributed 17% of Singapore's average daily stock market turnover in the 2022 YTD. 5 of the 20 most traded stocks of the Manufacturing Index that have seen the strongest gains in early November included Frencken, Riverstone, UMS, Top Glove, YZJ Shipbldg and AEM. The 5 averaged 19% MTD returns.
Read more at: bit.ly/3O6xKJG
📈 *REIT Watch on The Business Times - Industrial S-REITs see resilience despite macro challenges*
All 8 of Singapore's industrial S-REITs have reported their respective Q3 financial results or business updates. Average portfolio occupancy rate across the 8 S-REITs was held steady at 95.4% while average gearing ratio was at 37.2%.
While many echoed the weakening global outlook provided by MAS in their releases, several noted the resilience of the industrial segment in Singapore, underpinned by long-term demand for logistics, high-value manufacturing and biomedical sectors.
4 out of the 8 industrial S-REITs published financial results for the latest quarter - AIMS APAC REIT, EC World REIT, Mapletree Industrial Trust and Mapletree Logistics Trust - while the rest reported interim business updates.
Read more: bit.ly/3AdmjKr
💡<Analyst Spotlight for 10 Nov 2022>
Tuan Sing Holdings Ltd (T24): Update report (FPA Financial)
- Potential improvement to Tuan Sing's earnings as supported by the positive outlook in the property markets of Singapore and Australia.
- Initiate coverage with Buy recommendation and a target share price of S$0.421 (current S$0.300 at 13 October 2022)
Micro-Mechanics Holdings Ltd (5DD): Near-term Weakness to persist (DBS Research)
- 1QFY23 gross margins declined to 51.0% on the back of continued inflationary pressures and supply chain challenges.
- Downgrade to Fully Valued recommendation with a target share price of S$2.32 (current S$2.76 at 28 October 2022)
LHN Logistics Ltd (GIH): New initiatives to kick in from FY23F (CGS-CIMB)
- 2HFY9/22 net loss of S$4.9m reported due to higher staff costs and one-off write-offs of S$4.8m from the redevelopment of the group's new ISO tank depot.
- Reiterate Add recommendation with a target share price of S$0.16 (current S$0.14 at 1 November 2022)
📈 Wilmar, Sembcorp Ind & Keppel DC REIT Led STI's 2-Week 5% Partial Rebound
The STI gained 5.4% over the past fortnight, recovering half of the declines posted between 13 Sep and 21 Oct. This has brought the STI's 2022-to-date total return to 4%, which compares to an 18% decline for the FTSE Developed Index and 21% decline for the FTSE Asia Pacific Index.
The STI's 5 strongest stocks since 21 Oct included Wilmar, Sembcorp Ind, Keppel DC REIT, UOB and Keppel Corp, with 4 of the 5 stocks providing financials/business updates over the period. UOB was among the most defensive STI stocks between 13 Sep and 21 Oct, in addition to YZJ Shipbuilding, Genting SG, DBS, Emperador.
Read more: bit.ly/3fNbXKm
Closing
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