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Last week, U.S. Dow Jones index fell 1200 points on Tuesday (13th sep) after the August inflation report on CPI remained high, alarmed the entire markets to prepare for another round of aggressive rate hike soon to be announced at the coming Fed meeting this week Wednesday.
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FOCUS this coming week
Fed Reserve is making another round of rate hike decision on coming Wednesday (U.S. Times), and the following is mark out what had happened to S&P before and after every Fed Meeting decision and CPI index announcement (inflation) made since early March this year.
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To Investors :
Investment tip takeaway 🦉 this week:
The past week was absolutely disappointing. And the uptrend movement was so short-lived and in fact reversed in direction as the inflation report shown no sign of improvement of the current economic situation. Though the rebound did happen on the following days after the tumble, but last Friday was still considered disappointing to me and that's something I can't justify with the ongoing market sentiment.
As mentioned, bond and forex markets are the first asset classes to feel the commotions due to the increasing strength gained by the USD. Hence, my forecast for the entire month of September remains "optimistic", will no longer make sense for the woefully fearsome market. But I still hold on to this being mentioned last week: "I will likely take the opportunities to buy sell (trading) within this month, and sell if prices continue to trend higher, because I will turn pessimistic as entering into the month of October." And my preferred sectors continue lie in transportation, property, medical sector and even bitcoin, but not for buying, rather to take opportunities to sell if prices are making a come back.
For your reading:
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This Week Economic Data ~ Focal Point :
📣 Important indexes to take note:
Monday, September 19, 2022 | |
AUD | RBA Meeting Minutes |
Tuesday, September 20, 2022 | |
USD | Building Permits Aug Housing Starts Aug API Weekly Crude Oil Stock |
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 | |
USD | Existing Home Sales Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Statement Fed Interest Rate Decision FOMC Economic Projections |
JPY | BoJ Interest Rate Decision |
Thursday, September 22, 2022 | |
USD | Initial Jobless Claims |
GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision |
Friday, September 23, 2022 | |
SGD | CPI (YoY) Industrial Production |
USD | Manufacturing PMI S&P Global Composite PMI Service PMI Fed Chair Powell Speaks |
p.s:
Next FOMC Meetings 2022; September. 20-21
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Last Week Economic Data Review :
Singapore
SG's Unemployment Rate Q2, Previous: 2.1%... Actual: 2.1%
-> Unchanged
SG's Non-Oil Exports (YoY), Previous: 7.00%... Actual: 11.40%
SG's Trade Balance, Previous: 3.538B... Actual: 3.755B
United States
USD's CPI (YoY), Previous: 8.5%... Actual: 8.3%
USD's PPI (YoY), Previous: 9.8%... Actual 8.7% ⬆️
-> PPI measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
USD's Crude Oil Inventories, Prev: 8.844M... Actual: 2.442M ⬆️
USD's Retail Sales (MoM), Prev: -0.4%... Actual: 0.3% ⬆️
USD's Initial Jobless Claims ⬇️
USD's Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Prev: 6.2... Actual: -9.9 ⬇️
China
CNY's Industrial Production (YoY), Previous: 3.8%... Actual: 4.2%
CNY's Retail Sales (YoY), Previous: 2.7%... Actual: 5.4%
CNY's Unemployment Rate, Previous: 5.4%... Actual: 5.3%
UK
GBP's CPI (YoY), Previous: 10.1%... Actual: 9.9% (Mkt Exp: 10.2%)
-> Remained
GBP's Retail Sales (YoY), Previous: -3.2%... Actual: -5.4%
"The only guarantee for failure is to stop trying."
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Other Focus (Highlights of Results / Corporate Actions):
💡 SGX <Analyst Research>
Other extracted news:
China Vanke's unit seeks up to US$784 million in Hong Kong IPO
Sea to fire 3% of Shopee Indonesia staff as layoffs start
MAS double tightening of upward re-centring and slope steepening 'likely' in Oct: Citi
Fed tilts toward third 75 basis-point hike on stubborn inflation
LHN Group acquires Pasir Panjang property for $30 mil
ByteDance to buy back US$3 bil in shares after IPO stalls
GIC, Blue Owl agree to buy Store Capital for US$14 bil
AIMS APAC REIT partners SP Group to install rooftop solar PV system across six properties in Singapore
FJ Benjamin is back on track to profitability after being hit by the pandemic
Frasers Property's green retail notes offer 1.64 times subscribed
Excelpoint Technology confirms delisting on Sept 19
Chinese conglomerate Fosun under scrutiny as bonds, shares slide
Ascendas REIT to acquire cold storage logistics facility in Singapore for $191.9 mil
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SGX & Other Newsfeed
📈 Energy Plays Among the 2022 Stocks with Surges in Trading Activity
The 10 Singapore-listed stocks, that have averaged more than S$1M in daily turnover in the 2022 YTD and saw the most percentage increases in daily trading turnover as compared to the full 2021 year, include as many as 3 Energy plays - Golden Energy and Resources, Geo Energy Resources and RH Petrogas.
Combined, the trio averaged S$15M of daily trading turnover, up 3.4x from 2021, while averaging close to 70% price gains in the 2022 YTD.
Read more: bit.ly/3d7OKBn
Analyst Spotlight for 15 Sept 2022>
ESR-LOGOS REIT (J91U): Maiden foray into Japan (CGS-CIMB)
- Proposed acquisition of its first Japan property for S$183.5m will strengthen portfolio metrics and offset income vacuum from asset divestments.
- Reiterate Add recommendation with a target share price of S$0.51 (current S$0.41 at 29 August 2022)
Micro-Mechanics Holdings (5DD): Longer Term Trend Intact (DBS Research)
- FY22 revenue aligned with expectations, while bottom-line net profit was above expectations. Outlook remains healthy, but cautious of higher raw material and labour prices.
- Maintain Hold recommendation with a target share price of S$3.42 (current S$3.14 at 31 August 2022)
Guocoland (F17): Exciting times ahead on both property development and investment fronts (DBS Research)
- Deeper focus on property investment in the office upcycle and Guoco Midtown contribution to start in FY23.
- Maintain Buy recommendation with a target share price of S$2.30 (current S$1.67 at 1 September 2022)
🎙 BT Market Focus Ep 12 (Choppy week as rate hikes loom)
SGX Research Analyst, Candace Li, joins BT Market Focus, a weekly podcast by The Business Times that looks at the market drivers and movements in Singapore, the region and the globe. In this week's podcast, we discussed stock movements and funds flow shifts for the week, Singapore's macro data, notable company news and S-REITs acquisitions and divestments.
▶️ Listen to the podcast replay at bit.ly/3Lm9nXf or on Spotify/Apple Podcasts
📈 [REIT Watch on The Business Times - Logistics S-Reits to ride on e-commerce growth]
With accelerated digital transformation, shifts in consumer trends and a greater focus on supply-chain resilience, the global logistics industry remains central to the rapid growth of e-commerce.
There are 11 listed S-Reits and Property Trusts with exposure to logistics properties. Although the 11 trusts underperformed the broader iEdge S-Reit Index YTD, on a longer term basis, they generated an average 10-year total returns of 90%, outpacing the iEdge S-Reit Index's 69% total returns.
To read the full article: bit.ly/3BlOQxg
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Avant-Garde : Blockchain, NFTs, Metaverse... and Emerging New Wave
Crypto: Bitcoin falls past $19,000... rebounded as risky assets, and being slump ahead of Fed decision (Check price)
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Closing
My long term tick remains in Oil & Gas, and agriculture, e.g. SembCorp Ind and Keppel
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